Arab Gulf States Fear Israeli Strikes Could Trigger Severe Iranian Retaliation

American and regional officials express concern that Israel's involvement in conflict with Iran could escalate into a full-scale war. Sources familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal that Washington has urged Israel to refrain from engaging in combat for the time being. Gulf states are actively working with the US to prevent Israel from resuming attacks on Iran, fearing a harsh Iranian response that could target their energy infrastructure. This potential retaliation would also complicate the Gulf countries' political willingness to join any strikes against Iran if necessary.

Regional mediators have joined efforts to keep Israel out of the fighting, arguing that Israeli involvement would hinder the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from returning to peace talks. Iran appears eager to avoid direct conflict with Israel, focusing its attacks on US allies such as Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, including a missile strike on a US base that killed at least two American soldiers. So far, Iran has refrained from attacking Israel directly.

Nonetheless, Arab sources remain worried that it is only a matter of time before Israel reenters the conflict, risking further escalation. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched missiles at Israel for over two years and threaten to block the Red Sea, which would further disrupt Gulf oil supplies. Gulf Arab states face a dilemma over whether Iran's attacks and control of the Strait of Hormuz might compel them to intervene militarily. Most prefer not to be seen as fighting alongside Israel, with Gulf researcher Hussein Ibish noting it is "much better for Israelis not to be perceived as part of a de facto coalition."