Iran Shifts Gulf Attacks to Bahrain and Kuwait, Exploiting Regional Vulnerabilities
Amid ongoing regional tensions, international analysts highlight a strategic shift in Iran's military focus in the Gulf. According to a Foreign Policy opinion piece by researchers Rob Geist Pinfold and Dania Thafer, since the ceasefire between the US and Iran, Tehran has redirected its attacks away from the United Arab Emirates, which bore the brunt of strikes during active conflict, toward Bahrain and Kuwait. These two smaller Gulf states are viewed by Iran as ideal targets: significant enough to send a message to Washington and its allies, yet not central enough to provoke a large-scale American military response. This approach allows Iran to maintain pressure without escalating into full conflict.
The article explains that Bahrain and Kuwait are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for energy transit, their hosting of important US interests, and their relatively smaller size compared to neighbors. Despite differing policies toward Iran, Bahrain has taken a hardline stance and joined the Abraham Accords, while Kuwait has pursued pragmatic relations, both have become targets. The authors warn that Iran’s strategy focuses on exploiting regional weak points rather than distinguishing between friend or foe.
The piece also raises concerns about the US response, noting the lack of significant military retaliation against attacks on these key allies could undermine American deterrence credibility and encourage Iran’s selective pressure tactics. Furthermore, the Gulf Cooperation Council’s inability to present a unified front allows Iran to exploit divisions and repeatedly target the "weakest link" in the region.
Separately, an interview with Jihad Azour from the International Monetary Fund in Al-Monitor discusses how Gulf states have diversified their oil export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the global energy market’s vulnerability to disruptions there. However, countries like Iraq, Qatar, and Iran remain heavily dependent on Hormuz, making them more exposed to risks. Azour also highlights Gulf investments in artificial intelligence and data centers as potential new growth engines that could lessen reliance on oil revenues.
Additionally, a Wall Street Journal investigation reveals worsening conditions for Palestinian security prisoners in Israeli custody since the October 7 Hamas attack. The report cites increased detainee numbers, overcrowding, poor sanitation, alleged physical abuse, and medical neglect, alongside Israeli authorities’ denials and calls for enhanced oversight by international bodies such as the Red Cross.
