Gulf States Divided Over Iran Conflict Amid Efforts to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open

After 13 consecutive nights of strikes, the United States paused attacks on Iran, bringing a brief lull to the Gulf region, which has endured retaliatory Iranian assaults. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, are attempting to present a united front to end the conflict, but longstanding tensions and diverging priorities complicate these efforts. Recently, senior officials from the UAE and Saudi Arabia publicly demonstrated reconciliation, while Jordan and the GCC held meetings with the U.S. State Department and Capitol Hill, issuing joint statements condemning Iranian attacks.

Despite a shared goal of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, Gulf states differ on how to achieve it due to conflicting interests, such as alternative shipping routes, economic vulnerabilities, and varying degrees of integration with Iran. The GCC, established in 1981 during the Iran-Iraq war, has faced internal divisions that the current conflict has exacerbated. The UAE's April withdrawal from OPEC sparked anger, especially from Saudi Arabia, highlighting the council's dysfunction.

The Gulf states' split is evident in their approaches to Iran: Oman and Qatar favor mediation and engagement, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia lean toward a more aggressive stance, including airstrikes and drone attacks. Oman had reportedly negotiated with Iran on tolls for the Strait of Hormuz, a move halted by the Trump administration. The UAE has also deepened defense ties with Israel amid the conflict.

Economic factors influence these divisions. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman can bypass the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas exports, unlike Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, which remain vulnerable. Gulf states have expressed concerns about becoming Iranian targets and have requested additional arms from the U.S., though coordination levels vary. Historical rivalries, such as Saudi-UAE tensions and differing support in regional conflicts like Yemen and Sudan, further complicate unity.

While a June 15 U.S.-Iran memorandum briefly united Gulf states around energy flow priorities, mistrust persists, with suspicions of covert financial support to Tehran undermining neighbors. Reports of the UAE planning to transfer billions to Iran were denied by Abu Dhabi. Kuwait and Bahrain reportedly struck Iranian targets but later denied involvement. Qatar is promoting a ceasefire initiative to reduce tensions.

Gulf states are also investing in infrastructure to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, including the UAE's pipeline to Fujairah port and Kuwait's talks with Saudi Arabia and the UAE on pipeline oil transport. However, these projects remain vulnerable to Iranian attacks if the conflict continues. Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers have cast doubt on the effectiveness of existing land pipelines.

With no end to the conflict in sight, White House spokesperson Olivia Weiss emphasized that destructive strikes will continue until President Biden decides otherwise. Gulf states insist on being included in U.S. decision-making processes, underscoring their desire to protect their interests amid the ongoing crisis.