Gulf States Fear Iran Conflict Escalation but Oppose Regime Collapse

Dr. Eddy Cohen, a Middle East expert, discussed the Arab world's reactions to the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States during a segment on Israel's Channel 14 program "Israel Today." He highlighted that Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar, do not want the Iranian regime to collapse, fearing the instability such an outcome could bring. These states are concerned about the conflict escalating and threatening vital shipping routes in the region.

Cohen noted that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have long tried to prevent a broader military confrontation, but their efforts have only been partially successful. He also warned about the possibility of a new agreement with Iran, cautioning that Iran is skilled at negotiating deals that may not serve regional stability.

The discussion also covered the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf states worried about shifts in control that could lead to new economic or security arrangements, including transit fees or a redistribution of interests. Additionally, Cohen addressed the ongoing threat posed by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, suggesting recent developments might push Saudi Arabia toward seeking a resolution to this persistent security challenge.

Saudi Arabia faces a strategic dilemma as it contends with threats at both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, crucial maritime chokepoints for trade to the East and Europe. Cohen predicted that the Houthi issue could intensify soon and serve as a regional pressure tool amid the broader Iran-Gulf rivalry.