Gulf States Caught Between US-Iran Tensions, Facing Maritime Threats

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries find themselves in a precarious position amidst escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with recent attacks threatening vital oil infrastructure and maritime routes. The US is gathering intelligence on an attack where drones, launched from Iraq, damaged a key oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia. This incident follows previous drone attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq targeting Saudi facilities. Satellite imagery confirmed nine large fires along the pipeline, which is crucial for Saudi oil exports, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and reducing reliance on it. Iranian media have referred to this pipeline as the "only main alternative to the Strait of Hormuz."

Amidst this heightened regional instability, foreign ministers from GCC nations may meet with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi next week. These potential talks occur against a backdrop of increased activity by the Houthis in Yemen, who have reportedly gained control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Yoel Guzansky, a former Israeli National Security Council official and Middle East expert, commented that the current situation does not indicate a shift in regional states' stance towards Iran or a newfound trust in Tehran.

"The Gulf states have found themselves in precisely the situation they have sought to avoid for decades: two vital maritime routes are under threat simultaneously, and the power they relied on for their protection cannot currently offer them a clear way out," Guzansky stated. He explained that Iran's strategy of creating threats to shipping and then offering to negotiate terms for its restoration allows Tehran to benefit from self-created pressure, with no guarantee against future repetition.

Guzansky noted that the GCC's willingness to negotiate with Iran reflects growing doubts about US strategy and its ability to guarantee shipping security, especially after the US has been unable to neutralize Iran's key leverage for over six months. The situation is further complicated by the escalation in the Red Sea, with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government reporting Houthi advances and control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent Iranian actions, including a missile strike on a US-occupied base in Jordan, signal a potential for further escalation.