Trump Links Saudi Civil Nuclear Deal to Normalization with Israel Amid Regional Tensions

US President Donald Trump recently conditioned his intention to advance a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia on the kingdom joining the Abraham Accords, a move that came just one day after he announced the nuclear deal without any such conditions. Trump stated that the nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia is contingent upon Riyadh normalizing relations with Israel.

Dr. Michal Yaari, a Gulf region expert from Ben-Gurion University, noted that Trump's abrupt shifts on the issue raise questions. Initially, Trump had declared that Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear program depended on progress toward normalization with Israel, then he dropped this condition, only to reinstate it a day later. Yaari suggests this may reflect Trump's anticipation that following Israel's upcoming elections in late October, a new government might emerge willing to pursue a political horizon with the Palestinians, which Saudi Arabia views as a prerequisite for normalization.

This approach surprises analysts as it risks undermining US interests. Yaari explained that Trump is attempting to pressure Saudi Arabia into normalization by linking it to the nuclear deal, despite rising US-China tensions that make Saudi cooperation strategically important. The move could exacerbate distrust between Saudi Arabia and the US, especially given Saudi criticism of US-Israeli military actions against Iran, which Riyadh claims were decided without Arab consultation and caused significant harm.

The Saudi leadership reportedly insists it will not normalize ties with Israel without at least partial agreement on a political framework addressing the Palestinian issue, a fundamental condition for any progress. Trump's inconsistent stance on this critical matter may push Saudi Arabia closer to other powers like China and Russia for support in its nuclear ambitions and regional strategy.

The evolving situation highlights the complex interplay between US foreign policy, Saudi strategic calculations, and the broader Middle East peace process, with significant implications for regional stability and US influence.