Saudi Arabia Plans Nuclear Program With Pakistan and China Despite US Conditions

Following US President Donald Trump's announcement that Saudi Arabia's nuclear program would be contingent on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords, Israeli officials quickly expressed optimism. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed messages of "peace through strength," but experts caution that normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains unlikely in the near term. Saudi Arabia's economy is struggling, and the ongoing Houthi blockade threatens further disruption. Historically, Saudi military involvement against Israel has been minimal, but a Saudi nuclear program would represent a significant shift, especially given the kingdom's Wahhabi religious identity.

Since April, Saudi Arabia has hosted a Pakistani military presence including 16 JF-17 fighter jets, drone squadrons, and Chinese HQ-9 air defense systems, under a mutual defense pact signed in September 2022. Beyond military cooperation and economic aid, Pakistan, a nuclear power with approximately 170 warheads, could provide Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) with a nuclear deterrent far beyond the civilian program promoted by Trump. China, the world's third-largest nuclear power with around 586 warheads, is also a key partner, having cooperated with Saudi Arabia on uranium mining and potentially nuclear technology.

Saudi Arabia views nuclear capability as essential for deterrence against Iran and as a strategic economic asset to support its vision of becoming a Middle Eastern AI hub, requiring stable and large-scale energy supplies. The kingdom has plans for two nuclear power plants near the UAE border, with bids from China, Russia, France, and South Korea.

Normalization with Israel appears distant, as MBS prioritizes internal stability amid ongoing Gaza conflict and regional tensions. Upcoming elections in Israel (October 27) and the US midterms (November 3) add further uncertainty. Without US leadership in Saudi nuclear development and no progress on normalization, Israel risks losing influence while Saudi Arabia advances its nuclear ambitions with Pakistani and Chinese assistance.

In summary, while US conditions tie Saudi nuclear progress to peace agreements, Riyadh is pursuing a robust nuclear and military partnership with Pakistan and China, reflecting broader regional security concerns and economic goals.