US Signs 30-Year Civil Nuclear Deal with Saudi Arabia Without Normalization or Strict Oversight

The United States is set to officially sign a 30-year agreement with Saudi Arabia to assist in developing a civilian nuclear program, without requiring Riyadh to normalize relations with Israel or accept the "gold standard" of stringent international oversight. The deal, expected to be signed Wednesday evening, allows American companies to help build nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia and includes a two-year joint study on the economic feasibility of uranium enrichment on Saudi soil.

If the study supports local enrichment, the US would develop the facility under a confidential "black box" arrangement designed to prevent Saudi access to sensitive enrichment technologies. Saudi Arabia cannot pursue uranium enrichment independently or with other countries' help for ten years if the US objects. The agreement also restricts Saudi capabilities to produce weapons-grade materials like plutonium.

However, experts and Israeli officials have expressed concerns that the deal could open a pathway for Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear weapons in the future. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has threatened to pursue nuclear arms if Iran does so. The agreement does not require Saudi Arabia to sign the Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which provides enhanced inspection rights, due to Saudi fears inspections could extend to holy sites and royal palaces.

The deal marks a shift from earlier Biden administration proposals that linked nuclear assistance to Saudi normalization with Israel. The Trump administration removed this condition and approved the agreement last week despite potential Congressional opposition. Israeli officials view the removal of the normalization requirement as a setback, weakening Israel's leverage over Saudi Arabia and reflecting a decline in Israel's influence in Washington. The agreement also raises concerns about undermining US demands on Iran to cease uranium enrichment in future nuclear negotiations.

Saudi Arabia frames its nuclear program as part of a broader energy diversification strategy to reduce domestic oil consumption and boost exports. Experts warn the agreement could set a precedent encouraging other regional states like the UAE, Turkey, and Egypt to seek similar lenient terms, potentially increasing nuclear proliferation risks in the Middle East.