US Intelligence Estimates Iran Possesses Up to 2,500 Missiles

The U.S. intelligence community estimates that Iran possesses between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles, a significant arsenal that could enable attacks on American and allied targets should a full-scale war resume, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. While this assessment is considered to have low confidence due to the difficulty in tracking exact numbers, Israeli military officials similarly estimate Iran has over 1,500 ballistic missiles. One Israeli military source warned that despite severe damage, Iran is "rebuilding, rearming" and preparing for a serious round of conflict.

These findings contrast with statements from senior Washington officials, including President Donald Trump, who declared "we won" on Veterans Day and emphasized the need for "total victory, not 93% victory." U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also claimed on Tuesday that Iran's defense industry had "disappeared" and that "by any measure we achieved a historic military victory."

The rapid rebuilding of Iran's missile arsenal, largely based on pre-stocked components and excavated facilities, is central to internal Trump administration discussions about renewing strikes alongside Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to advocate for renewed military action against Iran, and Mossad Chief Roman Gofman met with senior U.S. officials in Washington on Friday. However, U.S. allies in the Gulf have expressed opposition to a return to war, fearing Iranian retaliation.

Amid uncertainty over negotiations, President Trump is currently opting to maintain economic pressure through sanctions. He has directed Vice President J.D. Vance to cease a diplomatic channel with a hardline Iranian official and focus on domestic issues. Beyond the missile stockpile, experts and security officials note Iran has improved the effectiveness of its attacks on U.S. bases, radar, and warning systems in the Middle East, aided by improved intelligence and targeting data from allies like Russia, and by integrating missiles and drones.