US Intelligence Estimates Iran Possesses 1,500-2,500 Missiles

U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Iran possesses between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles in its arsenal, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal citing American officials. This arsenal size is believed to give Iran a significant capability to strike the U.S. and its allies should another war break out. However, officials noted a low confidence in these estimates due to the difficulty in tracking Iran's exact missile numbers, including those in storage or ready for launch.

Despite U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production facilities, Tehran has continued to rebuild its arsenal, albeit at a slower pace than before the war. This rebuilding is attributed to the use of pre-stocked components, and Iran also possesses numerous drones and short-range missiles. This recovery contradicts previous statements by U.S. administration officials, including former President Donald Trump, who claimed Iran's military had been destroyed.

These developments are reportedly influencing internal discussions within the Trump administration regarding the potential for renewed attacks against Iran, in coordination with Israel. Israeli military officials similarly estimate Iran has over 1,500 ballistic missiles, though regional estimates vary. Simone Ledeen, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, stated that even the lower estimate of 1,500 missiles means Iran has replenished over half its estimated pre-war inventory, rebuilding its arsenal between June 2025 and February of the current conflict.

Iranian use of ballistic missiles, drones, and improved tactics against U.S. military installations, radar, and early warning systems in the Middle East has led Washington to relocate many U.S. military assets to Jerusalem, considered a safer location. While U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf have expressed reluctance to re-engage in conflict with Iran, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is reportedly pushing for renewed strikes. Mossad Chief Roman Gofman traveled to Washington on Friday to discuss the matter with American officials.

Former President Trump hinted in a Veterans Day speech that the U.S. had not completely destroyed Iran, stating, "We won, but the question now is when we want to finish. We must achieve total victory, not a 93% victory. It will be total." He also told radio host Hugh Hewitt that it would be a "defeat" for the U.S. if the Iranian regime remained in power by the end of his presidency.

Jim Mattis, a former CIA analyst specializing in the Iranian military, commented on the difficulty of accurately assessing Iran's missile stockpile due to the country's secrecy, the number of manufacturers involved, and the unknown quantities of newly produced missiles from stored components. He noted that the ambiguity of pre-war estimates further complicates current assessments, stating that certainty levels can be very low even with classified information.

Destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities was a primary objective for the U.S. and Israel during their war against the country. Both nations initially declared success, with Netanyahu claiming Iran's missile program was successfully crushed and remaining missiles were running out. However, an Israeli official indicated that despite significant damage, Iran is rearming and preparing for another serious round of fighting. Previous reports in April indicated Tehran had preserved thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles in underground sites. While Israeli and U.S. strikes damaged entrances to these facilities, satellite imagery suggests Iran has regained access to some by excavating them, with the missiles likely surviving intact.