Israeli Coalition Talks Stall Over Ultra-Orthodox Draft Law and Party Demands

Gadi Eisenkot, tasked by President Yitzhak Herzog with forming a new Israeli government, faces significant challenges in assembling a coalition. Two main scenarios are emerging: a four-party "change bloc" government that could expand later, or an immediate coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties to secure a 61-seat majority. Key sticking points include the draft law for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, the role of Arab parties, and social benefits for military reservists. Each of the four "change bloc" leaders has distinct political commitments that are difficult to compromise on.

The ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, hold 13 crucial seats. Their support hinges on the fate of the draft law, with Shas having recommended Benjamin Netanyahu due to his promise to resolve the issue for yeshiva students, while United Torah Judaism has remained non-committal, leaving room for negotiation. Internal divisions exist within United Torah Judaism regarding cooperation with Eisenkot's bloc.

Eisenkot proposes forming a government with the four "change bloc" parties first, then seeking broader support. He emphasizes the urgent need for new leadership to avoid a political crisis. His non-negotiable principles for coalition partners include recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accepting the Declaration of Independence, mandating national or civil service for all citizens, and designating Hamas as a terrorist organization. He suggests evaluating potential partners based on these principles, though Arab parties' stances on security could be an obstacle.

Avigdor Lieberman, previously opposed to ultra-Orthodox participation, now agrees to negotiate with them to prevent new elections and end Netanyahu's tenure. He insists on the principle of mandatory service for all citizens, proposing the 2018 draft law as a starting point, though it requires significant revision to withstand judicial review. Lieberman also categorically rejects a minority government reliant on Arab parties, demanding a pre-secured 61-seat majority, contrasting with Eisenkot's phased approach.

Yair Golan advocates for a more flexible approach, not ruling out support from Arab parties like Ra'am and the Joint List, potentially for parliamentary backing. He has met with their leaders to discuss coordination. Golan also seeks cooperation with the ultra-Orthodox community but insists on mutual responsibility, not continued exemptions and privileges, aiming to increase their participation in the army and workforce.

Naftali Bennett's primary condition is a reform in state policy for soldiers and reservists, supporting Eisenkot's efforts for a "Zionist government of correction." His "Servants' Revolution" program proposes extensive benefits for military personnel, funded by reallocating budgets from yeshiva students and other perceived unjustified state expenditures. Bennett's stance on mandatory service for all, including ultra-Orthodox, presents a significant hurdle for potential agreements with Shas and United Torah Judaism.

The ultra-Orthodox parties demand that a new draft law be passed by the government and approved by the Knesset *before* they join the coalition, seeking guarantees for yeshiva students. This creates a catch-22: a government is needed to pass a government bill, but the ultra-Orthodox votes are needed to form the government. Lieberman opposes a minority government with external Arab support, complicating potential workarounds. The exact nature of the draft law acceptable to all parties remains unclear, with Eisenkot, Bennett, and Lieberman seeking a law that doesn't perpetuate mass exemptions.

Simultaneously, the Knesset is establishing temporary parliamentary structures, with Lieberman heading the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and Liron Avissar Ben-Horin leading the Finance Committee. These appointments grant influence over the legislative agenda and budget. Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to push for a unity government, with Likud reportedly trying to dissuade ultra-Orthodox parties from joining Eisenkot's bloc.