Israeli Politics in Flux: Coalition Talks Intensify Amidst Leadership Uncertainty

Following the recent Israeli elections, political maneuvering is intensifying as parties vie to form the next government. While Likud and Yesh Atid secured the most mandates, the key to coalition building appears to lie with Yisrael Beiteinu and United Torah Judaism. Although no public meetings have occurred, Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman's press conference and United Torah Judaism's decision not to recommend a prime minister signal a potential opening for Gadi Eisenkot's "change bloc" to form a government. However, the chances of success are slim, with no easy solutions apparent from the election results. Eisenkot's position is slightly better than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's, who currently lacks even a theoretical path to forming a government.

The political landscape remains chaotic, with the opposition struggling to agree on a Knesset speaker and blaming Eisenkot for damaging their bloc's campaign. The potential coalition is grappling with the distinction between a "government of unity," which implies power-sharing with Eisenkot, and a "broad government," an invitation for others to join Netanyahu's potential administration. As of the end of the week, following presidential consultations, it is likely that Eisenkot will receive the first opportunity to form a government, though his ability to succeed remains uncertain.

Simultaneously, an investigation into alleged foreign interference in the elections continues to be a point of contention between Netanyahu's supporters and opponents, drawing in the heads of law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Lieberman, who had been silent for a week after the elections, stated at a press conference that Yisrael Beiteinu would not join a government with Netanyahu, nor a minority government reliant on Arab parties. His stance on ultra-Orthodox parties, previously a focus for his party, was notably vague, leading many to believe he has given Eisenkot the green light to negotiate with United Torah Judaism and Shas.

Within the ultra-Orthodox camp, there is disarray, with United Torah Judaism split into three factions. Nevertheless, Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox parties followed rabbinical directives and did not recommend Netanyahu for prime minister. Their abstention from recommending Eisenkot is seen by the opposition as a sign of willingness to negotiate. These negotiations are reportedly underway, with United Torah Judaism assessing their chances of success at 50/50. The primary challenge is finding a way for parties like Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas to save face with their electorates, given their harsh pre-election rhetoric against the ultra-Orthodox.

For Eisenkot and Lieberman to reach the crucial 61-mandate threshold, they need to bring Shas into the coalition. Although Shas recommended Netanyahu, political circles believe they will not want to remain in opposition if United Torah Judaism joins the coalition. An informed source within United Torah Judaism suggested that a government led by Eisenkot might face fewer legal challenges from the Attorney General and the High Court of Justice than Netanyahu's government, implying a shared desire to move past Netanyahu. The formation of a center-left coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties could signify a major shift in Israeli politics, potentially breaking down established political blocs.

Meanwhile, the opposition is racing against time, with the Knesset set to be sworn in on November 10th. Eisenkot is eager to form a government quickly to prevent Netanyahu from regaining the initiative. However, disagreements persist within the "change bloc" regarding the Knesset speaker nomination, with Yisrael Beiteinu pushing for Yair Lapid and Eisenkot's party demanding a representative. A compromise must be reached by November 9th to avoid delaying the speaker's election. The "Likud" party, while publicly advocating for a "broad government," is reportedly working behind the scenes to find defectors to undermine any coalition formed by Eisenkot. The ongoing investigation into alleged foreign election interference has also become a political battleground, with accusations flying between Netanyahu's supporters and opponents, and the heads of the Shin Bet and the Attorney General's office finding themselves at the center of the controversy.