Arab World Believes Trump Decision on Iran Will Reshape Middle East

Following the shift in the U.S. political balance, particularly the loss of the Republican majority in Congress, analysts believe Donald Trump may be poised to alter his foreign policy regarding Iran. The article from "Al-Nashra" suggests Iran strategically delayed its actions until after the U.S. midterm elections, anticipating a Republican defeat. This shift is attributed to factors including rising oil prices, increased inflation, and reduced American purchasing power, alongside Trump's trade policies exacerbating production costs and import prices. Immigrant communities also reportedly shifted to the Democratic party due to Trump's immigration policies, and public opposition to funding overseas military interventions further weakened the Republican position.

Despite a weakened legislative standing, Trump is expected to retain significant influence over foreign policy and the ability to order swift military actions. The U.S. is likely entering a period of legislative gridlock, where major initiatives will require Democratic consent. While the White House can veto opposition legislation, Democrats can leverage budgetary powers and committee oversight to block funding or launch investigations. The new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027, leaving Trump with approximately two months of broader maneuverability.

The article outlines three potential scenarios concerning Iran. The first, a limited strike, is considered unlikely by political assessments. The third, a full-scale war, is deemed difficult to implement in the short term. Consequently, the second scenario, involving limited military strikes against Iran, is seen as the most probable, though it carries the risk of escalating into a wider regional conflict. Such an escalation could involve Israel and Iran-backed militias, transforming a contained operation into a broad regional war that would transcend partisan politics.

Iran's strategy of negotiation and delay, coupled with its gamble on a Republican loss following the Hormuz Strait crisis and subsequent oil price surge, appears to have paid off. This has potentially weakened Trump's negotiating position with Tehran. The article emphasizes that the exact development of renewed military actions, even if initially limited, remains unpredictable, with Iranian responses potentially forcing an expansion of the scope and duration of any U.S. military engagement.