US Midterms Reshape Middle East Policy, Iran Prepares for Nuclear War

The recent US midterm elections, resulting in a significant Democratic victory and control of both houses of Congress, are expected to have immediate and substantial impacts on Middle East policy. While Arab capitals have been largely silent, the shift in American political power signals increased scrutiny of arms sales to Israel and a tougher stance on its policies in the territories. Relations between Israel and the Democratic Party have been severely strained, particularly with the growing influence of the party's progressive wing. Despite President Trump having two years left in his term, Democrats are unlikely to reopen the US consulate in East Jerusalem or reinstate aid to the Palestinians, but they are poised to challenge the administration.

Other Middle Eastern nations may also face increased pressure. Democrats plan to link military aid to Egypt to human rights concerns and will closely examine lucrative deals made between the US and Gulf states during Trump's tenure. Investigations are also anticipated into business dealings between Trump's associates, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, and these nations, potentially uncovering "dark dealings." Abdul El-Sayed, a Democratic Senator from Michigan, has previously criticized Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, labeling his regime a dictatorship and advocating for the cessation of military aid. These developments are seen as a prelude to the 2020 presidential election, which could bring a significantly different administration to power.

Meanwhile, Iran has broadcast detailed instructions on surviving a nuclear attack, amid speculation of further conflict following the US midterms. Military experts advised citizens on seeking shelter, sealing homes, and preparing emergency kits. Despite the apparent sense of impending doom, Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have mocked Trump's party's losses, framing it as a rejection of war. However, Iran also acknowledges the ongoing diplomatic efforts, with Qatar mediating a potential memorandum of understanding. This deal, reportedly approved by the US administration, could involve Iran making concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for the release of frozen assets. However, Iranian officials have downplayed the likelihood of an imminent agreement.

Hardliners in Iran are reportedly pushing for the development of nuclear weapons and withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), raising concerns about a potential breakout. The article notes a lack of a clear international plan to prevent such a scenario. Separately, Syrian authorities announced the thwarting of a Hezbollah plot to attack oil refineries in Homs. This incident, along with reports of assassination attempts and weapons smuggling attributed to Hezbollah, highlights the complex security challenges facing the new Syrian government. The regime faces a dual threat from ISIS and other extremist groups, as well as Iranian-backed proxies seeking to destabilize the region following the fall of the Assad regime. The new government is struggling to balance immediate security threats with the need for reconstruction and economic development.

The article also includes a historical retrospective on the 1917 Balfour Declaration, marking its anniversary. The declaration by British Foreign Secretary Lord Balfour to Lord Rothschild expressed British support for a "national home for the Jewish people in Palestine." Issued during World War I, it aimed to secure British interests in the Middle East and garner support from American and Russian Jews. The declaration, later incorporated into the British Mandate, is seen as a foundational document for the establishment of Israel, though it was met with strong opposition from Arab leadership and continues to be a point of contention.