Israeli Analysts Debate Path to Government Without Netanyahu
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Israeli analysts are debating the formation of a government led by Gadi Eisenkot, with differing strategies proposed by Yair Golan and Avigdor Lieberman. Nachum Barnea suggests Eisenkot might form a narrow minority government, while Guy Rolnik emphasizes the necessity of Arab partnership for any stable anti-Netanyahu coalition. Analysts highlight the challenges of forming a government without Arab support and the potential for instability, with some predicting Netanyahu's return if current strategies fail. The debate centers on how to achieve a majority against Binyamin Netanyahu and the role of Arab parties in Israeli politics.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli analysts are discussing potential government formations led by Gadi Eisenkot, with differing strategies proposed.
- Yair Golan's plan involves an agreement with Arab parties, while Avigdor Lieberman seeks support from Haredi parties.
- Nachum Barnea suggests Eisenkot might form a narrow minority government, bypassing negotiations with Arab and Haredi parties.
- Guy Rolnik stresses that any stable anti-Netanyahu coalition requires the partnership of Arab citizens.
- Analysts warn that failure to form a stable government could lead to Binyamin Netanyahu's return to power.
- The debate highlights the challenges of governing without Arab support and the potential for political instability.
Israeli political analysts are discussing the potential formation of a government led by Gadi Eisenkot, following his recommendation by 67 Knesset members to President Isaac Herzog, compared to 46 who recommended Binyamin Netanyahu. Political analyst Nachum Barnea of Yedioth Ahronoth noted that while parties in the "Change Bloc" agree on ousting Netanyahu, they differ on strategy. Yair Golan's plan involves an agreement with Arab parties for a stable government, supported by parties currently backing Netanyahu's government. Avigdor Lieberman's approach is more complex, aiming to secure support from United Torah Judaism, which would then influence the Shas party. This could lead to a 61-seat government, but would eventually require four Likud members to defect, a move unlikely in a government reliant on Arab support.
Naftali Bennett's role is seen as facilitating Eisenkot's government formation, with instructions to avoid criticizing Eisenkot. Barnea suggests Eisenkot's plan is to form a narrow minority government supported by 48 Knesset members, which would outvote Netanyahu's 46-member bloc. This strategy bypasses negotiations with Haredi and Arab parties, treating Arab community issues as a government obligation rather than political negotiation. Mansour Abbas's party might agree to Eisenkot's four conditions for joining. Barnea views Eisenkot's strongest argument against Netanyahu as the latter's actions undermining trust in elections and the Knesset's functioning, especially in light of "bad news from America" regarding aid and potential sanctions.
Barnea highlighted difficulties with Golan's proposed Jewish-Arab coalition, citing potential decision-making challenges and pressure on Arab parties from Netanyahu's campaign. Lieberman and possibly Bennett might not join such a government. Barnea also noted Lieberman's prediction that Eisenkot's narrow government would collapse within six months, allowing Netanyahu's return. Despite the unlikelihood of a stable government, the alternatives are not promising.
Guy Rolnik, founder and former editor-in-chief of TheMarker, pointed out that the significant increase in votes for opposition parties came from the Arab community, contributing nine additional seats. He argued that the "Change Bloc" leaders are exploiting the Arab community while excluding them, failing to acknowledge that a majority against Netanyahu requires Arab partnership. Rolnik criticized Bennett, Eisenkot, and Yair Lapid for adopting Netanyahu's premise of governing without Arab partnership or a political settlement, despite the failure of Netanyahu's "managing the conflict" doctrine, which he linked to the October 7th massacre.
Rolnik further stated that Lieberman, despite his past and alleged corruption, is perceived as anti-Netanyahu, which is sufficient for some. He criticized media outlets for normalizing Lieberman as liberal, asserting his self-interest. Rolnik urged Eisenkot to tell coalition leaders that appeasing racist voters has failed and that a true majority against Netanyahu is impossible without Arab partnership. He warned that if the "Change Bloc" leaders waste this opportunity due to fear of partnering with Arab citizens, they will share responsibility with Netanyahu if he remains in power.
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