US Election Results Complicate Netanyahu's Government Formation

The victory of Democrats in the US Congress elections has weakened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's position and complicated the formation of a new Israeli government. Democrats gaining control of both houses of Congress, coupled with President Donald Trump's statement about potentially halting military aid to Israel, have undermined one of Netanyahu's key arguments for power. This shift in Washington will now be a factor for his political opponents attempting to assemble a new coalition, according to Maariv.

Netanyahu has long leveraged his close relationship with Trump as a significant advantage, assuring potential partners that his ties to the US president effectively defended Israel's interests. However, recent events suggest that the personal relationship between the two leaders does not guarantee continued influence. Trump's announcement on election day of his intention to cease $3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel, despite an existing funding agreement through 2028, highlights this uncertainty.

The Democratic control of Congress means a segment of lawmakers are increasingly advocating for greater pressure on the Israeli government. This could impact arms supplies, economic cooperation, and decisions concerning Israel, as Congress can hold hearings, scrutinize arms deals, and promote policy changes. While Trump may be able to obstruct some actions, his ability to fully control legislative initiatives will be diminished.

Further potential friction points include the conflict with Iran. Trump faces criticism for military actions and might seek a deal to claim victory, while Netanyahu may favor continuing operations if the Iranian threat persists. Divergent stances on this issue could lead to significant disagreements between Washington and Jerusalem, with their personal relationship unlikely to resolve such conflicts.

Additionally, Israeli policy in the West Bank is becoming a contentious issue, with growing support among Democrats for sanctions against individuals involved in settler violence. A proposal backed by 174 lawmakers could, even if not enacted under Trump, increase investor and banking concerns about cooperation with Israel.

The new political landscape in Washington also impacts Israeli coalition negotiations. Parties opposing Netanyahu secured 67 seats in recent elections, but the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot holds only 48, making coalition building challenging. Disagreements among potential partners, such as Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett's opposition to including Arab parties, and disputes over the potential participation of ultra-Orthodox parties, further complicate matters. Yair Lapid has ruled out a unity government led by Netanyahu, while Eisenkot, Bennett, and Lieberman have yet to define their strategies. Regardless of who leads the government, future coalitions will need to address settlement construction, settler violence, and Palestinian relations, which will influence relations with the US Congress.