US Election Results Complicate Israeli Government Formation

The Democratic victory in the US Congress and President Trump's announcement regarding aid to Israel have destabilized Netanyahu's primary diplomatic asset. Amidst ongoing negotiations to form a new government in Israel, Gadi Eisenkot and his partners must confront this new reality in Washington.

The recent Israeli elections saw parties opposing Netanyahu secure 67 seats, but Eisenkot's Zionist Change bloc has only 48 seats, making government formation challenging. While the Democratic win in the US doesn't alter the Knesset math, it impacts the considerations of those trying to build a coalition. Trump will continue to lead US foreign policy and retain significant security powers, and his personal relationship with Netanyahu could still benefit Israel.

However, an Israeli government will now also have to contend with a Democratic Congress, where growing factions seek to pressure Israel. This Congress can hold hearings, scrutinize arms deals, and advance legislation that could complicate matters for Jerusalem. Trump can block some of these actions but not prevent them from being considered.

Trump's announcement about aid, suggesting Netanyahu himself proposed ending the annual $3.8 billion in grants by the end of 2026, highlights this shift. The current agreement extends until 2028, with no agreed-upon early termination. If Netanyahu did propose this, it raises questions about how he intended to replace the aid. If the initiative came from Trump, it indicates that even personal ties don't guarantee Netanyahu control over White House messaging. The timing suggests that support for Israel is no longer an automatic electoral asset, even for Republicans.

Furthermore, the conflict with Iran could test the US-Israel relationship. Trump, facing public criticism, might seek a resolution to present as an achievement. Netanyahu, however, might prefer continued military action if he believes the Iranian threat persists. A divergence on this issue could lead to significant disagreements, where personal closeness may not resolve conflicting interests.

This shift in Washington could also delay arms deals, lead to sanctions, and harm economic cooperation. For instance, increasing Democratic support for punitive measures against settler violence, with 174 Democratic lawmakers joining the initiative, could deter investors and make banks wary of operating with Israel, even if such sanctions are unlikely to pass under Trump.

The political deadlock in Israel is further complicated by these developments. The next government will need to decide how to address settler violence, settlement construction, and relations with the Palestinians. The coalition's composition will largely determine its ability to reduce friction with Congress; a policy change toward the West Bank could encourage the Democratic leadership to moderate sanctions efforts.

Eisenkot's immediate challenge remains securing a majority to form a government, with Lieberman opposing reliance on Arab parties, Bennett hesitant, and the possibility of including Haredim facing disputes over the draft law. Even if a government is formed, consensus on diplomatic issues will be crucial. A unity government led by Netanyahu might have a broader majority but would still need to address US pressure. Yair Lapid has already used the US election results to rule out a Netanyahu-led unity government, while Eisenkot, Bennett, and Lieberman are still deciding their course. The Washington shift has added a significant diplomatic consideration to their existing disagreements.