Ultra-Orthodox Parties Hold Key to Israeli Government Formation
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Ultra-Orthodox parties are key to forming Israel's next government, potentially enabling a three-way prime ministerial rotation. Gadi Eisenkot may offer them a generous conscription deal to join his coalition. If he fails, Benjamin Netanyahu could receive the mandate, with Likud weighing a unity government or new elections. The ultra-Orthodox parties hold significant leverage in negotiations.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Ultra-Orthodox parties' approval could lead to an unprecedented three-way rotation for Israel's prime minister.
- Gadi Eisenkot may offer ultra-Orthodox parties a generous conscription deal to secure a coalition.
- Avigdor Lieberman has ruled out joining a minority government, complicating coalition talks.
- Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is considering a unity government or facing new elections.
- The ultra-Orthodox parties currently hold a strong bargaining position in coalition negotiations.
Ultra-Orthodox parties are in a pivotal position to influence the formation of Israel's next government, potentially leading to an unprecedented three-way rotation for the prime ministership. Political analysts believe Gadi Eisenkot is likely to be tasked with forming a government first. To secure a coalition, Eisenkot may offer the ultra-Orthodox parties a generous conscription arrangement for yeshiva students, along with significant budgets and agreements on their key issues.
Should the ultra-Orthodox parties agree to join such a coalition, it could also open the door for Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party to be included. However, Lieberman has ruled out joining a minority government. The Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is reportedly considering either forming a unity government or facing another election.
In a scenario where Eisenkot fails to form a government, the mandate could pass to Netanyahu. Some in his circle believe a repeat election might not be detrimental to his prospects, speculating that high Arab voter turnout and international support for the "change bloc" might not be replicated. However, Netanyahu also faces risks; if the mandate reaches the Knesset for 21 days, a majority of 61 lawmakers could unite to task a mutually agreed-upon candidate with forming a government, potentially enabling the "change bloc" to forge agreements previously unattainable.
Given these risks, sources within the Likud suggest Netanyahu might agree to a unity government with Eisenkot, even if it's not his preferred path. The ultimate decision, however, rests with Eisenkot, who must decide whether to join a government with Netanyahu or opt for new elections, despite the associated political risks. The ultra-Orthodox parties, currently enjoying a strong bargaining position, can withhold their recommendation, evaluate offers from both sides, and keep coalition decisions open. The question remains whether they will leverage their power solely in negotiations or be willing to pay the political price for joining a government led by Eisenkot.
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