Israel's Next Government Hinges on Ultra-Orthodox Parties and Potential PM Rotation

Ultra-Orthodox parties now hold a pivotal role in forming Israel's next government, with their decisions potentially leading to a contest for the prime minister's seat among three politicians. Two days before consultations with President Isaac Herzog, the key to forming a coalition largely rests with the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, announced he would support Gadi Eisenkot for prime minister, while firmly ruling out a minority government backed by Arab parties and reiterating his refusal to join Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet. This narrows Eisenkot's coalition-building options, leaving the crucial question of whether the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, will shift their allegiance to an Eisenkot-led government.

Ultra-Orthodox parties have not yet committed, stating their final decision depends on their rabbinical leadership, with Rabbis Dov Lando and Moshe Hillel Hirsch expected to return from abroad shortly before the presidential consultations. It is speculated that United Torah Judaism might opt not to recommend any candidate, preserving maximum flexibility for future negotiations.

Despite potential non-recommendations, many believe Eisenkot will be the first to receive the mandate to form a government. He may offer the ultra-Orthodox parties favorable terms regarding the conscription of yeshiva students and other key issues to secure their support. If they agree, Lieberman's party could also be included. However, even with their agreement, negotiations may not conclude easily.

Given Lieberman's past high-profile ministerial roles, he might demand a rotation for the prime minister's post with Eisenkot. This could spark conflict within the "change bloc," potentially pitting him against former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who might object to Lieberman, with a smaller party, receiving a rotational premiership while he takes a ministerial role. A three-way rotation among Eisenkot, Lieberman, and Bennett could emerge, though this remains a speculative scenario.

The entire situation hinges on the ultra-Orthodox parties' decision. They are leveraging their position to secure advantageous terms, with one representative stating, "It is better for everyone to remain in tension and uncertainty." However, a pragmatic assessment suggests the likelihood of rabbis endorsing an Eisenkot-led "left" government is low, particularly for United Torah Judaism and especially for Shas, whose chairman, Arie Deri, has indicated reluctance to repeat the scenario of ultra-Orthodox parties joining Yitzhak Rabin's government during the Oslo Accords. Shas remains committed to the right-wing bloc.

If the ultra-Orthodox parties do not join Eisenkot's government, the possibility of a cabinet relying on Arab party support will resurface. However, Lieberman's opposition to a minority government, even a temporary one, complicates this. Without Yisrael Beiteinu and the ultra-Orthodox parties, Eisenkot faces significant challenges in forming a stable majority.

Should Eisenkot fail, the mandate could pass to Netanyahu. His camp considers new elections a viable option, anticipating a potential decrease in Arab voter turnout and the return of foreign-based voters. However, Netanyahu also faces risks, including the possibility of a 61-member Knesset majority forming a government during the 21-day period if all attempts fail. To mitigate this, Likud representatives suggest Netanyahu might agree to a national unity government with Eisenkot, though Eisenkot would then have to decide whether to join Netanyahu or risk further elections.