Ultra-Orthodox Bloc Key to Government Formation, 'Change Bloc' May Pay Price on Conscription Law
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Analyst Anna Barski believes Gadi Eisenkot will likely receive the first mandate to form a government, but coalition building faces hurdles, particularly concerning the ultra-Orthodox parties and the conscription law. Avigdor Lieberman's demand for a rotation and potential opposition from Naftali Bennett are key factors. The "change bloc" may need to compromise on campaign promises, especially regarding ultra-Orthodox conscription, to form a government.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot is the most likely to receive the mandate to form a government first.
- Forming a government is complex, with uncertainty even for Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Avigdor Lieberman's demand for a rotation could complicate coalition talks.
- Naftali Bennett may object to a rotation if he and Yair Lapid have significant mandates.
- The conscription law is a critical issue requiring compromises from the "change bloc".
- Forming any government necessitates compromising on campaign promises.
The path to forming a government in Israel is heavily influenced by the ultra-Orthodox parties, with the "change bloc" potentially facing significant compromises, particularly regarding the conscription law, according to analyst Anna Barski. Barski suggests that Gadi Eisenkot is the most likely candidate to receive the mandate to form a government first, but the road to a coalition remains complex.
Barski noted the difficulty in forming a government from any side, stating that anyone claiming a precise prediction is either dishonest or misinformed. Even Benjamin Netanyahu, she added, appears uncertain about the direction of government formation, despite projecting messages of a unity government.
Regarding the mandate, Barski indicated that Eisenkot is the frontrunner, though the situation remains fluid just before consultations with the President. A key variable is the recommendation, if any, from the ultra-Orthodox parties, especially United Torah Judaism.
Avigdor Lieberman has stated that a government not relying on Arab parties is the only option he would consider. Barski elaborated that Lieberman's leverage in forming a government with the "change bloc" would be a rotation in the Prime Minister's office. This scenario, she believes, would create significant difficulty for Naftali Bennett, who would rightly argue that he and Yair Lapid, with their 12 mandates, should not settle for ministerial positions.
The conscription law is identified as a critical factor that will determine the coalition's makeup. Barski explained that while no law will lead to the conscription of all ultra-Orthodox men, the prevailing view within the "change bloc" is that the ultra-Orthodox are not the primary obstacle. The post-election understanding is that forming any government requires compromising on some campaign promises, and the question is which promises will be sacrificed.
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