Shas Suffers Major Election Blow After Alienating Key Voter Bases

The Shas party experienced a significant electoral defeat in the recent elections, securing only six Knesset seats, its lowest tally since 1992. While increased voter turnout partially explains the lower seat count, the party also failed to capitalize on demographic trends that were expected to favor it. Unlike the United Torah Judaism party, Shas historically appealed to both religious Sephardic scholars and a broader base of traditional and secular voters. However, in recent years, particularly since the October 7th attacks, Shas has struggled to balance the demands of these disparate groups.

Many traditional voters, who had long supported Shas, expressed frustration over the party's perceived leniency regarding ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, especially when their own sons were serving extended reserve duty. Despite Shas's campaign efforts to appeal to these voters, many ultimately shifted their support to the larger Likud party. Concurrently, a notable segment of Sephardic yeshiva students, traditionally Shas supporters, voted for the Religious Zionism party (known as 'Gimmel'). These students felt that Shas representatives did not adequately support them on the conscription issue, whereas Religious Zionism maintained a more consistent stance.

These yeshiva students expected a clear declaration from Shas that no yeshiva students would be drafted, rather than apologetic statements suggesting that those not studying would be conscripted. While most Sephardic rabbis hold the position that no student should be drafted, fearing secularization within the community, Shas representatives did not articulate this position unequivocally. The party's struggle with the draft law thus led to it being "hit from two directions": traditional voters were alienated by the lack of conscription among the ultra-Orthodox, while yeshiva students felt unsupported by Shas's ambiguous stance.

In contrast, United Torah Judaism maintained a consistent, uncompromising approach to the draft law, focusing solely on its ultra-Orthodox base. This strategy reportedly garnered them some disillusioned Sephardic votes that might otherwise have gone to Shas. The article suggests that while Shas may have lost the traditional vote, its primary error was alienating the yeshiva students. The party's advisors apparently underestimated the loyalty of their base, believing them to be a captive audience, only to be met with a harsh electoral reality.

Looking ahead, the question remains whether Shas has learned from these mistakes and will recommit to supporting the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox community, or if it will attempt to regain traditional voters, potentially repeating its electoral misstep. The article also briefly mentions a separate report by Ami Segal regarding a significant political figure.