Expert Warns New Iran Conflict Could Trigger Global Energy Crisis

A new military strike against Iran by the U.S. and Israel could trigger a catastrophic chain reaction, impacting global energy markets and potentially escalating into a wider international crisis, according to retired Israeli Navy Commander Major General Eliezer Marom. Speaking on 103FM radio, Marom cautioned that Tehran might retaliate against a limited U.S. attack by targeting regional energy infrastructure, which could prolong any conflict beyond Washington's control and cause a sharp rise in global fuel prices. He emphasized that even a successful operation would not guarantee the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program or the overthrow of its regime. Marom suggested that Iran's nuclear ambitions are a key tool of influence that the leadership is unlikely to relinquish under pressure. He believes the only fundamental ways to alter the situation are a U.S.-Iran agreement or the regime's collapse, neither of which appears imminent. However, Marom noted that a military operation could be justified if intelligence indicates an immediate threat of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, such as preparations for a nuclear test within two weeks. Without such concrete evidence, he advised against immediate military action, as additional airstrikes alone are unlikely to cause regime change, and the consequences of retaliation could outweigh the operation's benefits. The former commander also pointed out that hopes for a swift internal collapse of the Iranian regime, fueled by external pressure and internal dissent, have not materialized. While Iran's economy is deteriorating due to high inflation and unemployment, Marom suggested that internal processes might pose a greater long-term threat to the regime than airstrikes. He also cautioned that even if the current leadership falls, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could still ensure a successor from the same radical political system remains in power, maintaining hostile policies toward Israel and the U.S. Therefore, Marom concluded, a new attack without a clear strategic objective risks creating more problems than it solves, potentially allowing Iran to retain nuclear capabilities, continue its confrontation, and damage the global energy market. He advocates for continued pressure on Tehran and waiting for internal changes, reserving military action only for an immediate, otherwise unresolvable threat.