Expert Warns Trump May Emerge Weakened From Midterms, Harming Iran Policy

Professor Zaki Shalom, a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security, warns that President Trump could be weakened by the upcoming US midterm elections, potentially hindering his ability to advance significant initiatives against Iran. In an interview, Shalom criticized Trump's conduct, particularly his perceived inconsistency and lack of credibility, which he believes has alienated the public. Shalom suggested that Trump's approach of alternating between military action and negotiations has backfired, leading to a loss of public trust and potentially impacting his electoral prospects.

Shalom anticipates that a poor showing in the midterms will make it difficult for Trump to secure Congressional approval for major actions, whether military or in fulfilling promises to Israel. He described the period ahead as "challenging, to put it mildly," and "fraught with risks and complexities." However, Shalom noted that Trump might still be able to conduct limited, point-specific military operations without Congressional consent.

Shalom also criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision to delay military action against Iran until after the US midterm elections, calling it a "too dangerous gamble." He argued that Trump might not be in a position to assist Netanyahu post-election. While acknowledging that such a pre-election strike might be perceived as a political maneuver by Netanyahu, Shalom invoked the precedent of Begin's bombing of the Iraqi nuclear reactor before an election, suggesting that leaders must sometimes act despite potential criticism, as history ultimately judges their decisions.

Furthermore, Shalom expressed concern over Israel's prolonged approach to its conflicts, stating that the country is "fighting as if we have all the time in the world." He differentiated this from the Russia-Ukraine war, asserting that Israel's challenges with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are primarily political rather than military, and that a military response is warranted. He believes that historically, the US has respected Israel's actions when they stem from security concerns rather than impulsive decisions.

Regarding the possibility of Trump defying poll predictions, Shalom conceded it's possible but pointed to a "large accumulation of other indicators" such as the president's public approval, trust in his security and economic policies, and overall credibility, which suggest a negative public sentiment. He concluded that while Trump might continue military actions, they may not fully align with Israel's objectives.