US Midterm Elections Could Impact Trump's Foreign Policy, Aid to Israel

Upcoming US midterm elections on November 3 could significantly alter the balance of power in Washington, potentially complicating President Donald Trump's foreign policy initiatives. According to a Reuters analysis, Democrats are favored to win control of the House of Representatives and have a chance to secure a Senate majority. While this would not allow them to replace the president or unilaterally dictate foreign policy, it would grant them substantial tools to curb his actions through budget control, legislation, oversight, and congressional votes.

For Israel, a key concern is the potential for increased pressure on US security assistance. Democrats might leverage their congressional power to limit the US military campaign against Iran, which Trump initiated without prior congressional approval. If Democrats gain control of one or both chambers, they could exert further pressure through budget restrictions and demand public testimony from administration officials regarding war plans, potentially affecting Washington's freedom of action against Tehran.

Democrats may also push to renew US military and economic aid to Ukraine, which Trump has significantly reduced. Despite broad bipartisan support for aiding Ukraine amidst the Russian invasion, Trump's administration has taken steps perceived as easing sanctions on Russian energy. A Democratic takeover of Congress could allow them to bring new aid packages to a vote, potentially overcoming a presidential veto, and advance legislation against the concessions Trump has granted to Russia. Gregory Meeks, a potential chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has already introduced bipartisan legislation to counter Trump's plan to reintroduce Russian diesel to the global market.

The most sensitive issue for Jerusalem is the possibility that Democrats could seek to limit or halt military aid to Israel. Support for Israel within the Democratic Party has reportedly declined due to the war in Gaza, jeopardizing continued aid. While US military aid to Israel totaled $3.8 billion in the last fiscal year, there is a growing willingness among Democrats to impose conditions on this assistance. Nearly half of House Democrats voted for a cut to aid to Israel last summer, and even those who opposed the broader measure, like Meeks, supported restrictions on certain weapon types. A Democratic victory could empower proponents of these measures to control the legislative agenda and advance proposals to limit arms shipments or alter aid terms, though a complete halt is not an automatic outcome and would require further political and legislative action.

Furthermore, Democrats are expected to oppose significant increases to the US defense budget and seek to restore funding for foreign aid that the Trump administration has frozen or canceled. Trump's proposal to increase the defense budget to $1.5 trillion was met with Democratic opposition, partly due to concerns about insufficient consultation on the Iran conflict and cuts to social programs. The administration's delays or cancellations of congressionally approved foreign aid have angered Democrats. This shift could have a dual impact on Israel, potentially affecting the prioritization of US security spending and making it harder to maintain the current level of aid and arms supply.