Turkey-Israel Rivalry Over Syria May Intensify Amid Strategic Differences

A Turkish analysis suggests that tensions between Israel and Turkey are evolving into a long-term geopolitical rivalry, extending beyond personal disputes between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This shift is driven by growing strategic disagreements over the region's future and power dynamics.

According to a study by researcher Mustafa Ans Isen of the Turkish research institute InstituDE, a change in Israeli government leadership is unlikely to fundamentally normalize relations with Ankara. Isen argues that the core issues stem from deep strategic perceptions, not just leadership tensions. This perspective is supported by a report from the Turkish National Intelligence Academy titled "Anatomy of Israeli Expansion," which identifies Israel as a strategic competitor whose regional policies are consistent regardless of the government in power.

The analysis indicates that Turkish intelligence and government circles increasingly view Israel not just as a party to the Gaza conflict but as a rival shaping the regional order. Isen notes that while differences exist between Netanyahu and former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot in leadership style, their fundamental strategies regarding Iran, Syria, and Lebanon are similar. He points to Eisenkot's military background and involvement in the war cabinet after October 7th, suggesting an Israeli government led by him would likely continue operations in Syria, maintain a presence in southern Lebanon, and perceive Iran as a strategic threat.

Syria is highlighted as a primary friction point, with Turkey aiming to bolster the central government and expand its influence, while Israel seeks to protect its security interests and prevent the entrenchment of perceived threats. The increased military presence of both nations in Syria raises the risk of clashes, especially without consistent U.S. mediation.

The rivalry also extends to the Eastern Mediterranean and trade routes. Turkey views Israeli cooperation with Greece and Cyprus as potentially limiting its influence in the region. Furthermore, Turkey sees the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as a competitor to its own trade and transport projects, prompting it to develop alternative routes like the Development Road through Iraq and the Middle Corridor.

The Turkish report advises Ankara to avoid direct military confrontation with Israel, focus on regional partnerships, support stable governance in other countries, and develop alternatives to regional arrangements it is excluded from. While some U.S. officials, like Ambassador Tom Barrack, have described the rhetoric as political and suggested underlying relations are better, Isen believes the rivalry has surpassed personal animosity. He concludes that Netanyahu's departure alone would not resolve the fundamental issues, with Syria remaining a sensitive flashpoint and U.S. mediation crucial to preventing escalation.