Trump's Influence Could Shape Israel's Next Government

The formation of a new government in Israel following recent elections has proven challenging, with potential governing coalitions struggling to secure a majority in the Knesset. While opposition parties have a theoretical path to forming a government, internal disagreements hinder their progress. The Jerusalem Post suggests that U.S. President Donald Trump could play a pivotal role in encouraging a broad coalition, leveraging his influence and relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Despite the potential for external influence, the core issue of forming a stable majority remains. The Likud party secured 27 seats, and Gadi Eisenkot's National Unity party won 21. Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats, while opposition parties collectively have 48. The Ra'am party holds 8 seats and the Joint Arab List has 11. A minimum of 61 seats is required to form a government, presenting arithmetic challenges for the opposition, each option requiring significant political concessions.

A major hurdle for Eisenkot is not just uniting Netanyahu's opponents but agreeing on the government's composition. Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett oppose relying on Arab parties, while Yair Golan is open to cooperation with both Arab factions, creating internal friction. Furthermore, Lieberman's camp is reportedly dissatisfied with the pre-election rhetoric of Eisenkot and Golan, which they believe contributed to voters returning to Netanyahu.

Another possibility is a broad government including Likud and National Unity, totaling 48 seats. Adding Bennett's National Union party would bring the total to 60, just short of the required majority. This scenario also faces significant obstacles, including agreements on ministerial portfolios, potential prime ministerial rotation, the establishment of a state commission to investigate the October 7th events, and the conscription law. The inclusion of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir in such a government also remains uncertain.

Trump's potential involvement could add another layer to negotiations. His past support for Netanyahu and Washington's crucial role in Israeli security, regional diplomacy, and countering Iran could be leveraged. A significant diplomatic or military initiative from the Trump administration requiring broad Israeli political backing might alter the calculations of Israeli leaders. Netanyahu could frame a coalition with rivals as an opportunity to seize a new foreign policy chance, forcing Eisenkot to decide whether to compromise his previous pledge not to join a government led by the incumbent premier. However, Trump's desire alone is insufficient; even a White House meeting or public endorsement cannot resolve fundamental disagreements over the October 7th investigation, the conscription law, or the participation of specific politicians. Washington also cannot provide the missing parliamentary seats needed for a majority.

The ultimate decision rests with Israeli political parties. President Isaac Herzog will consult with party representatives after the official election results are announced and task a candidate with forming a government within 28 days, extendable by 14. Until a new coalition is formed, the current government will continue its duties. Failure to reach an agreement could lead to new elections.