Trump May Push for Netanyahu Government; Eisenkot Could Get First Mandate

U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering intervening in the Israeli government formation process, potentially pushing for a unity government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Simultaneously, sources close to Netanyahu are contemplating advising him against seeking the first mandate to form a government, fearing a potential failure could legitimize a "change bloc" government. The prevailing assessment is that President Isaac Herzog may initially task Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, with forming the government, partly due to expected recommendations from Arab parties. If recommendations align with projections, Eisenkot could secure the support of 67 Knesset members, compared to 53 for the Netanyahu bloc. The final decision rests with President Herzog after consultations.

Trump, who unusually supported Netanyahu during the election campaign, is weighing support for his government-building efforts. A source familiar with White House discussions indicated that the election results have created uncertainty in Washington, particularly due to the lack of a clear majority for any bloc. A key U.S. concern is preventing Otzma Yehudit chairman Itamar Ben-Gvir from holding senior positions to facilitate American initiatives in Gaza and elsewhere. Reports suggest prior discussions about a unity government without Ben-Gvir, involving Netanyahu's associates and Trump's confidants, and Trump may still exert pressure for such a coalition. Trump himself stated he has not yet considered intervening but will examine the possibility, though no official White House decision has been announced.

Within Israel, Netanyahu's associates are reportedly leaning towards him not requesting the first mandate. The concern is that a failed first attempt would empower the "change bloc" to form a government with Arab party support, arguing that right-wing government options have been exhausted. Current partial counts show the Netanyahu bloc with 53 mandates, the change bloc with 48, and Arab parties with 19. While Eisenkot might have more potential recommenders, the president is not obligated to assign the mandate to the candidate with the most recommendations but to the one believed most capable of forming a government. However, foregoing the first mandate carries a risk for Likud, as the change bloc could leverage its numerical advantage to control the Knesset's Arrangements Committee and advance legislative actions before a government is formed.

Commentator Amit Segal suggested Netanyahu must first reunite the right-wing bloc, especially after divisions within United Torah Judaism. Only then could he approach leaders like Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, or Eisenkot to join his government. A "B'hadrei Haredim" report explored Netanyahu's options, including attracting partners from the change bloc, but the leaders of those parties have pledged not to join his government. Eisenkot also faces challenges, with at least four Yisrael Beiteinu members reportedly opposing a minority government reliant on Arab parties, even temporarily. This proposed framework requires active support from Ra'am and abstention from the Joint List, which includes Balad, a scenario unacceptable to these four members whose names were not released.

Conversely, the Democrat party plans to intensify pressure on those opposing a government with Arab party support, potentially through mass protests. A Democrat source indicated they are not ruling out a rotation between Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman as prime minister to replace Netanyahu, though neither has yet agreed. The change bloc is also exploring Knesset actions without forming a government, such as replacing the Knesset speaker and advancing legislation where a majority exists, including establishing a state inquiry committee. Official election results are expected to be presented to President Herzog on November 4, after which he will hold consultations and decide on the first mandate.