Trump Considers Intervention to Form Netanyahu Government

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he would consider intervening to help form an Israeli unity government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. This comes amid election results showing Netanyahu's bloc improving its position from earlier predictions, though still failing to secure a parliamentary majority. Trump stated in a brief interview with Axios that he initially received "terrible reports" about Netanyahu's chances but that his situation has improved significantly as vote counting progressed. He also noted that his public endorsement of Netanyahu before the election "made a big difference."

Trump's remarks followed interim results indicating Netanyahu's bloc leading the bloc headed by Gadi Eisenkot. Israeli media had reported Tuesday that individuals close to the U.S. President were monitoring the election results and preferred a stable, broad government that excludes National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, rather than one based on far-right parties. These sources reportedly sought to understand the implications of the results and the possibility of forming a broad coalition, expressing a desire to avoid another far-right government involving Ben-Gvir.

A source close to Trump indicated an impression that Eisenkot had pledged not to join a Netanyahu-led unity government, while Netanyahu currently lacks the ability to form a right-wing government. With approximately 85% of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53 seats, compared to 48 for Eisenkot's bloc, with Arab parties expected to secure 19 seats. Neither bloc was projected to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. Netanyahu's bloc was set to lose 11 seats from its current parliamentary strength.

With around 500,000 votes, including those from soldiers, diplomats, prisoners, and voters who cast ballots outside their designated areas, still to be counted, the final seat distribution could be affected, though major shifts in power are considered unlikely. In the absence of a clear electoral outcome, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog is expected to begin consultations with parties next week to decide whom to task with forming a government. Herzog has urged avoiding another election, calling for open-mindedness from all parties.

Herzog may push for a unity government involving both Netanyahu and Eisenkot, though Netanyahu has publicly called for a "strong right-wing government." Netanyahu might attempt to persuade opposing party leaders to join his coalition, despite their pre-election pledges not to participate in a government he leads. Eisenkot could explore forming a minority government with external support from Arab parties, but such a coalition would likely face stability issues and could lead to new elections.

If a new coalition cannot be formed, Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister could be politically advantageous, granting him time to reorganize his bloc and maintain broad powers over security and foreign policy. This could also allow him to pursue actions against Iran, which he has described as a "historic opportunity" to eliminate the "Iranian threat forever" during Trump's tenure. For Eisenkot's bloc, waiting for new elections with Netanyahu as caretaker could pose similar political risks, potentially prompting opposing parties to seek ways to exert influence within the Knesset, such as controlling key positions, electing a new Knesset speaker, or advancing legislation targeting Netanyahu or repealing his past laws. A proposed step includes forming an official inquiry committee into security failures preceding the October 7, 2023 attack.

Should both sides fail to form a majority government, Israel could face new elections as early as April. The future government's formation remains contingent on political consultations and party stances on joining a Netanyahu-led coalition or supporting an Eisenkot alternative.