Netanyahu's Coalition Prospects Dim as Key Ally Considers Withholding Support

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces increased difficulty in forming a government following the October 27 legislative elections. The United Torah Judaism party (Yahadout HaTorah), which secured seven seats in the Knesset, may decide not to recommend Netanyahu to President Isaac Herzog, according to public broadcaster Kan. Such a move would reduce the number of lawmakers officially supporting his designation to form a coalition from 53 to 46.

Despite his Likud party winning the most seats with 27, Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing and religious parties falls short of the 61-seat majority needed to control the Knesset. Currently, his bloc has 53 seats, eight short of the required majority. The potential refusal of United Torah Judaism would further complicate the outgoing Prime Minister's position during presidential consultations.

The election results signal a significant shift in Israel's political landscape. Gadi Eisenkot's bloc holds 48 seats, and Arab parties collectively have 19 seats. Neither of the two main blocs can form a majority on their own. The stance of the Orthodox parties, traditional allies of Likud, is expected to be crucial in upcoming negotiations.

Official results are due to be presented to President Herzog next Wednesday, after which he will begin consultations with the various political factions. Each party can recommend a candidate to lead the government formation. While the number of recommendations is a significant factor, it does not automatically determine the President's choice.

The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, but forming a coalition could take weeks. Even with the support of his usual allies, Netanyahu will need to secure backing from other parties to achieve a parliamentary majority.