Arab Parties Surge in Israeli Elections, Reshaping Political Landscape

The 26th Knesset elections have brought significant shifts to Israel's political map, marked by an unprecedented surge for Arab parties and a decline for Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc. Arab parties dramatically increased their representation from 10 to 19 seats. Conversely, Netanyahu's bloc lost 11 seats, despite securing more votes than in the 2022 elections. The opposition and change bloc strengthened its parliamentary power.

The election results highlight that an increase in votes does not always translate to more seats. Netanyahu's bloc gained approximately 83,000 additional votes compared to the previous election but saw a substantial reduction in its parliamentary strength. This occurred amidst a roughly 20% rise in overall voter turnout and notable growth for the change bloc and Arab parties.

Arab parties benefited from a significant increase in voter turnout within the Arab community and successfully surpassed the electoral threshold. This contrasts with the 2022 elections, where votes for the Balad party were wasted. Consequently, Arab representation reached its highest level since the establishment of Israel.

Arab parties achieved a historic leap, boosting their parliamentary power from 10 seats in 2022 to 19 seats in the 26th Knesset. This advancement was driven by higher Arab voter turnout and the success of Arab lists in crossing the electoral threshold, preventing the waste of votes seen previously. Arab parties received approximately 835,000 votes in the current election, a more than 63% increase from the roughly 511,000 votes received by three Arab parties in 2022.

High turnout in Arab communities was a key factor. Sakhnin recorded the highest turnout at 86.4%, becoming the city with the highest participation nationwide. Other Arab towns and cities, including Umm al-Fahm, also saw significant increases in voter engagement.

Crucially, all prominent Arab lists successfully passed the electoral threshold, unlike in 2022 when parties like Meretz and Balad failed to do so, leading to the waste of nearly 290,000 Arab votes. This time, the successful crossing of the threshold allowed more votes to be translated into actual seats, contributing to the rise in Arab representation.

The change bloc, opposing Netanyahu, also enhanced its electoral and parliamentary strength, gaining over 17% more votes compared to 2022. This resulted in an increase from 46 to 48 seats in the Knesset. While the bloc's vote share was slightly lower than in 2022 when including Meretz's votes, the key difference was all its parties clearing the threshold.

Netanyahu's bloc suffered a significant electoral blow, dropping from 64 seats in 2022 to 53 seats in the recent election, a loss of 11 seats. This decline occurred despite gaining about 83,000 more votes, a 3.6% increase. The bloc's share of the total vote dropped from 48.38% in 2022 to 42.1% in the current election, explaining the seat loss despite more votes.

Within Netanyahu's bloc, the Shas party experienced the most significant setback, losing five seats and approximately 95,000 votes. The analysis suggests Shas's firm stance against the conscription of Haredi Jews into the Israeli military may have alienated some religious and traditional voters. Spiritual leader Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef described the party as a pure elite of God-fearing Haredim.

In contrast, United Torah Judaism saw an increase in votes, as did Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionism party, which together gained about 100,000 votes, potentially absorbing some of Shas's lost support.