Arab Representation in Knesset Sees Electoral Gains Amid Political Uncertainty

The Arab community in Israel experienced an exceptional moment in its political history during the 26th Knesset elections, with a voter turnout of approximately 80%, the highest since the 1990s. This surge reflected widespread anger and protest against the policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. Despite this electoral success, which secured 19 seats for Arab parties so far, it is unlikely to directly influence the formation of the next Israeli government. The Israeli political landscape remains complex, with the bloc of Zionist parties and figures like Gadi Eisenkot refusing to rely on the support of Arab parties, either internally or externally. This limits the options for forming an alternative government and presents a challenge for Arab parties to translate their increased electoral weight into tangible political influence.

Dr. Mtanes Shehadeh, Director of Research Programs at the Madar Center in Haifa, stated that the high turnout was unexpected but carries significant political messages. He explained that the vote was an expression of anger and rejection of the government's policies, including the war in Gaza, actions in the West Bank, and internal suppression. Shehadeh noted that Arab citizens felt voting was their primary tool for political expression. He also highlighted a clear political message in the distribution of votes, with the Joint List receiving double the votes of the United List, indicating a rejection of integration into the Zionist project under conditions that compromise Arab identity. The high turnout also signaled a rejection of Zionist parties and their policies, with only about 5% of votes in Arab towns going to Zionist parties.

Regarding the formation of the next government, Shehadeh indicated that the opposition is unwilling to form a government relying on external Arab support. Even the support of the United List might not be sufficient, and the Joint List has only offered external "safety net" support in certain cases, not a governmental alliance. The opposition's refusal to ally with Arab parties or the ultra-Orthodox parties restricts their options, potentially leading to either a national unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot or new elections. Shehadeh suggested Netanyahu might prefer new elections over a fragile unity government with Eisenkot due to significant policy disagreements on issues like the conscription of yeshiva students and judicial reform.

Shehadeh emphasized that the government's actions, particularly the war in Gaza and policies in the West Bank, significantly contributed to the high voter turnout, serving as a means for citizens to punish Netanyahu's government. Looking ahead, he stressed the importance of activating political tools outside the Knesset, strengthening popular committees, and enhancing the role of the Higher Arab Monitoring Committee. Shehadeh believes that parliamentary work, while important, has limitations, and a strong connection between parliamentary and grassroots efforts is crucial to leverage the electoral gains and navigate the current political crisis.