Israeli Military Doubts Quick War With Iran Would Achieve Goals

The Israeli military estimates that a new, swift war against Iran, potentially launched by the United States next month, would not achieve its objectives due to differing American and Israeli aims. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to overthrow Iran's regime and dismantle its nuclear program, while President Donald Trump aims for a deal with terms favorable to the U.S., including nuclear program restrictions and ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The military does not view Iranian restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as a direct strategic threat justifying war. However, Netanyahu believes that if Trump is willing to use military force, Israel should exploit the opportunity to target Iran's capabilities as much as possible, according to Haaretz.

Israeli military officials are concerned that U.S. attacks could lead Israel to join a conflict that ultimately leaves the Iranian regime intact and potentially emboldened in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Intelligence and air force assessments within the military doubt that even several days of strikes would significantly alter the situation in Iran. Sources suggest that even severe damage to military infrastructure and weapons development facilities would not lead to the Iranian regime's surrender or collapse, nor prevent Tehran from resuming uranium enrichment.

The military believes that war has reinforced Iran's motivation to acquire nuclear weapons, seeing them as a guarantee of survival and a deterrent against Israel and the U.S. Israeli intelligence, however, estimates that attacks could hinder the nuclear program but are unlikely to halt it without a political agreement involving international oversight. The military also anticipates that a inconclusive conflict could compel Israel to repeatedly strike Iran to prevent the rebuilding of its nuclear and missile programs. If the U.S. does not participate, Israel could face a prolonged war with immense costs and escalating risks.

Israeli military assessments predict the Iranian regime will remain stable for the next two years, attempting to influence the U.S. elections without abandoning its core objectives. Israeli officials worry that U.S. involvement in another war would increase criticism of Israel among the American public. The military also recognizes the difficulty of garnering broad public support in Israel for renewed conflict, especially shortly after elections and during a transitional government period. Military sources warned that a war perceived as unnecessary and failing to achieve desired outcomes could severely damage public trust in the IDF, which is still recovering from the failures of October 7.

The military estimates Iran possesses sufficient missiles for a new war and is seriously considering Iran's threats to target undersea communication lines, technological systems in Gulf states, and launch ground operations against a Gulf nation. Iran might take previously avoided actions to increase the cost of war for the U.S. and its allies.