Israeli Political Blocs Begin Post-Election Maneuvering Amid Uncertainty

Following the official conclusion of vote counting, Israel's political system is shifting focus to the next phase: government formation. While the path forward remains unclear, both major political blocs have initiated preliminary discussions and personal outreach ahead of President Isaac Herzog's planned consultations with party representatives next week. The process is expected to be lengthy, with potential outcomes including government establishment or a return to elections.

Within Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, a period of quiet has prevailed since the election results. Netanyahu, deviating from his usual practice, delayed contacting his bloc's members for nearly a full day after the exit polls. He has since spoken with Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and met face-to-face with Smotrich. Further conversations with ultra-Orthodox parties are anticipated. Some within Netanyahu's camp have expressed surprise at his measured approach, while others believe he is prioritizing efforts to prevent the Knesset speaker from being replaced in two weeks.

The "Change" bloc, having experienced some disappointment with the election results, is now assessing the new political landscape. Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the National Unity party, met with Yair Golan, leader of the Democratic Movement, and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Golan also met with Prime Minister Yair Lapid, though a meeting with Bennett has not yet been scheduled.

Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, is currently observing the political developments before charting his course. He has reiterated to his party members and branch leaders that pre-election pledges against forming a government with ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties remain firm. Lieberman's stance is seen as a potential complication for Eisenkot's efforts to form a new government.

Ultra-Orthodox parties have signaled to Eisenkot their willingness to negotiate joining his government, but a significant hurdle remains: their demand for an exemption from military conscription. Such a law would likely alienate other members of the "Change" bloc, who have committed to not forming a government with the ultra-Orthodox and to addressing the conscription issue. Political analysts widely expect Eisenkot to be the first to receive the mandate to form a government. He has pledged to his supporters to try and establish a "new and good government for Israel," though details on his strategy are scarce. He is expected to engage in broad negotiations within his bloc and with the ultra-Orthodox parties to gauge possibilities.

Behind the scenes, discussions about a potential unity government are surfacing in both blocs. Sources within the "Change" bloc suggest that for this to materialize, Netanyahu would need to demonstrate greater seriousness, and influential figures like U.S. President Trump or President Herzog, who has repeatedly pledged to prevent new elections, would need to exert pressure. Some within the "Change" bloc analyze that Netanyahu may prefer further elections over compromises that could dismantle his natural bloc.