Israeli Election Fallout: Scenarios for Government Formation

By דביר ג'ברה

Translated & summarized from Mako by baba

CenterNeutral tone

Hebrew · 3 newsrooms covering

Following Israeli election results, no bloc secured a majority, presenting multiple government formation scenarios. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc has 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's change bloc has 48, and Arab parties hold 19. President Herzog will begin consultations next week, urging avoidance of new elections. Potential paths include Netanyahu or Eisenkot receiving the mandate, forming unity or minority governments, or facing new elections if formation efforts fail.

The story in 6 lines · by baba

No bloc secured a majority in the Israeli election, leading to complex government formation scenarios.
Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc has 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's change bloc has 48, and Arab parties hold 19.
President Herzog will begin consultations next week, emphasizing the need to prevent new elections.
Scenarios include Netanyahu or Eisenkot receiving the mandate to form a government.
Potential government types range from unity governments to minority governments or new elections.
Key figures like Eisenkot, Bennett, Lapid, Lieberman, and Golan have stated positions on potential coalitions.

Following the final election results, no single bloc has secured a clear majority, leading to several potential scenarios for government formation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc currently holds 53 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot's change bloc has 48, and Arab parties hold 19. President Yitzhak Herzog praised the high voter turnout and stated he would begin consultations next week after receiving the official results from Justice Solberg, urging all parties to work towards avoiding further elections.

One primary scenario involves Netanyahu receiving the mandate first. He could attempt to form a unity government with Eisenkot and his right-wing partners, though Eisenkot has reportedly stated he would refuse such an arrangement. Alternatively, Netanyahu might propose a "conscription government" excluding parties like Otzma Yehudit and the ultra-Orthodox parties, but this is also unlikely given stated positions. If Netanyahu fails, the Knesset could be dissolved for new elections.

Another possibility is that Eisenkot receives the mandate, potentially due to a larger number of recommending lawmakers, including Arab parties. Eisenkot might first approach Netanyahu for a broad Zionist government without the ultra-Orthodox or Arab parties, a proposal likely to be rejected by Netanyahu. Eisenkot could then pursue a "change government" with leaders of the change bloc, potentially with the non-opposition or even support of Arab parties.

Further scenarios include Eisenkot forming a government with the change bloc, relying on the non-opposition or active support of Arab parties, though figures like Avigdor Lieberman have expressed reservations about governments dependent on Arab support. This could lead to a minority government. The article also mentions a less likely scenario of "defectors" from opposing parties being courted, and the possibility of a third candidate attempting to form a government if Netanyahu and Eisenkot fail, or Netanyahu again leveraging the dissolution of the Knesset if he receives the mandate and fails to form a government, though a majority for dissolution is not currently apparent.