Netanyahu and Shin Bet Chief Accused of Election Interference Maneuver

An analysis suggests that claims of foreign interference in the Knesset elections, investigated by the Shin Bet, may be politically motivated to challenge election results and prevent opposition control of the Knesset. The allegations, which point to a potential manipulation of suspicions, are seen as serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political interests. Military analyst Amos Harel described the situation as a "hastily conceived and panicked influence maneuver, with exaggerated dimensions and crude execution," indicating that the offices of Netanyahu and Shin Bet chief David Zini were more likely sources of the action than Qatar.

The immediate political goal, according to the analysis, is to prevent the replacement of the current Likud Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, as the opposition, including Arab parties, was poised to secure a majority to oust him. A change in Knesset leadership could have paved the way for legislative efforts to reverse laws passed by the previous coalition as part of judicial overhaul plans. The Likud's immediate call to suspend the vote for Knesset speaker, rather than awaiting investigation results, suggests a focus on political fallout over the investigation itself.

This development occurs as Netanyahu's bloc struggles to form a government, and the opposing bloc faces similar difficulties due to the parliamentary weight of Arab parties and a Likud-led campaign to delegitimize cooperation with them. Harel posits that Netanyahu aims to solidify this stalemate, potentially creating an opportunity to form a government or push for new elections he believes he could win.

Harel draws parallels between the attempts to cast doubt on election results and the claims of fraud made by former US President Donald Trump in January 2021 to disrupt the transition of power to Joe Biden. He notes the irony of a camp that opposed an independent investigation into the October 7th events suddenly focusing on election integrity, while also leveling accusations against Arab citizens. The choice of Qatar as a target is also questioned, given Netanyahu's description of it as a "complex country" amidst ongoing investigations involving his advisors.

The issue surfaced with near-simultaneous leaks to Channels 12 and 13 on Thursday morning, alleging the transfer of tens of millions of shekels from Qatar to Arab parties to influence election outcomes. These reports were initially directed to political correspondents, not security or legal specialists. Channel 14 dedicated exceptional coverage to the story, titled "Ballot Box Terrorism," and called for election annulment. However, the initial narrative began to erode as reports emerged suggesting the investigation concerned hundreds of thousands of shekels, not tens of millions, transferred to entities allegedly linked to the Joint List, with no proven use. This discrepancy raises questions about the timing of the Shin Bet's involvement, especially since Zini declared on election day that the elections were conducted properly and under effective supervision, despite being aware of the suspicions.

Noam Solberg, chairman of the Elections Committee, was briefed on Tuesday, and the Ministry of Justice had preliminary information since the previous weekend, described as limited and different from the leaked reports. Harel questions why the Shin Bet did not intervene before the elections if it possessed information about foreign attempts to influence them, suggesting Solberg had no choice but to order an investigation after the suspicions were presented to him. The Shin Bet later clarified that the investigation does not justify "accusing an entire public that went out to vote democratically and legally," emphasizing that proceedings would be limited to those who violated the law.

Harel warns that the campaign to delegitimize Arab parties is impacting the public atmosphere and does not rule out violence against Palestinians in the West Bank or during protests within Israel, stemming from potential cooperation between Arab parties, particularly the Joint List, and a government coalition. He believes that the leaders of the change bloc have preemptively limited their options with pre-election pledges not to cooperate with Arab parties, influenced by Netanyahu's media and political campaign. Concurrently, the acting director-general of the Central Elections Committee affirmed that the elections were conducted legally and that ballot box integrity was maintained, stating that claims of systematic tampering are unfounded, supported by statements from the police chief and Shin Bet head on election day.