Netanyahu May Gain Unexpected Advantage Amid Post-Election Political Stalemate

A political deadlock following recent elections has created an unexpected situation that could benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ongoing political crisis, stemming from the Knesset elections, might lead to a repeat vote. Amidst suspicions of voter bribery and a lack of parliamentary majority for the main political blocs, Netanyahu finds himself in a position where new elections could be more advantageous than forming coalition agreements.

Political commentator Amit Segal is examining the possibility of repeat elections in light of an investigation into alleged foreign interference and the current distribution of Knesset seats. Despite losing his parliamentary majority, Netanyahu's circle shows no signs of conceding defeat. Preliminary results indicate his bloc secured 53 seats, with the Likud party winning 27, a decrease from the 55 seats his bloc and 32 seats his party received in September 2019. However, the current outcome is viewed differently due to unmet expectations from the Prime Minister's political opponents, such as Avigdor Lieberman, who had anticipated 63-64 seats for them.

Further uncertainty arises from an investigation into alleged voter bribery, potentially involving foreign funding. A notable increase in voter turnout among the Arab population has raised questions about mobilization efforts, with discussions about an organized campaign using potentially legal or illegal methods. While suspicions of Qatari involvement and other violations exist, foreign interference or mass bribery have not been proven. Replicating such high turnout in repeat elections could prove challenging, with the Shin Bet also monitoring potential electoral law violations.

Opponents of Netanyahu suspect he desires a transitional government and new elections. However, his stance may stem less from an immediate desire for elections and more from a lack of significant concern about such a scenario. Netanyahu is open to including Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, or Lieberman in the government but refuses to concede to their key political demands, including establishing a state commission of inquiry, altering the conscription law, removing Itamar Ben-Gvir, and making concessions in his ongoing trial. These conditions significantly complicate negotiations for a broad coalition.

The paradox of the current elections is that the high turnout among Arab voters did not enable Netanyahu's opponents to form a government. Instead, the seat distribution has created a political situation where the Prime Minister might retain power even without a Knesset majority. A transitional government, while limiting long-term decision-making, would allow Netanyahu to focus on foreign policy and security issues, such as confronting Iran, normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gaza situation, and developments in Lebanon, without the constant threat of coalition partners leaving or no-confidence votes.