Election Results Offer Clues to Shifting Ultra-Orthodox Real Estate Landscape

Election results can provide insights into the evolving real estate market within the ultra-Orthodox community, according to an analysis by Yaakov Reinitz. For the past four years, thousands of ultra-Orthodox families have been relocating from established population centers like Bnei Brak and Jerusalem due to high housing prices and the difficulty for young couples to raise down payments. These families are seeking housing solutions in other areas, either in older ultra-Orthodox cities, joining existing communities in the periphery, or establishing new settlements in previously unlikely locations.

While traditional analysis of ultra-Orthodox voting patterns focuses on major cities such as Bnei Brak, Jerusalem, Modi'in Illit, Beitar Illit, and Elad, this approach overlooks significant trends occurring in the periphery. Reinitz suggests examining voting data from ultra-Orthodox and mixed neighborhoods in cities like Tiberias, Afula, Novof Galiil, Haifa, Tzfat, and Harish, where the ultra-Orthodox population has expanded. By comparing voting percentages for ultra-Orthodox parties in these areas to previous elections, new voting hubs can be identified, revealing where new communities are forming and the demographic base of the ultra-Orthodox public is growing.

This analysis extends beyond politics, offering a tool to identify emerging communities and potential future residential hubs for the ultra-Orthodox population. While voting data alone does not equate to a census, when combined with information on housing, construction, and population movement, it can illuminate trends. Previous local elections demonstrated how demographic shifts can alter local power balances, and Reinitz proposes applying this method to Knesset elections.

Reinitz notes that the migration to the periphery is less pronounced for non-voting segments of the ultra-Orthodox population, except for Harish and specific instances in Tiberias. The key to understanding these trends lies in comparing election results in neighborhoods with growing ultra-Orthodox populations over time, correlating them with data on new neighborhoods, occupied housing projects, and the volume of purchased apartments. This approach helps distinguish between a settlement with many new apartments but a small ultra-Orthodox community and a location where a substantial community is forming, creating new demands and needs.

Ultimately, while election results won't dictate specific property values, they can indicate where ultra-Orthodox families are concentrating and which areas are poised to become significant residential centers in the future. The elections reveal political shifts, but they also offer a glimpse into the changing real estate map beneath the surface.