Arab Voters Deliver Unprecedented Turnout, Influencing Israeli Election Outcome

Arab citizens in Israel achieved an unprecedented voter turnout of 80% in the recent elections, exceeding expectations and signaling a significant political statement. This surge in participation, described as a reckoning after four years under the Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir-Smotrich government, saw polling stations fill up before closing time for the first time. Arab voters overwhelmingly rejected Zionist parties in their towns and villages, favoring the two main Arab lists: the Joint List and the United Arab List.

The Joint List secured 11 seats, surpassing predictions from polls and even its own expectations, which had ranged between 8 and 10 seats. The United Arab List obtained 7 seats, aligning with pollster forecasts. However, the United Arab List's sweep of votes in the Negev was seen as a setback for the Joint List, particularly given the presence of Negev candidates in its top ten.

The primary goal of the Arab lists was to prevent the return of the Netanyahu government. The Joint List, with its 12 seats, is credited with preventing the far-right from returning to power. The increased Arab voter turnout led to two Israeli parties failing to cross the electoral threshold, which, had they succeeded, would have bolstered Netanyahu's coalition prospects. This outcome was attributed solely to the Arab vote via the Joint List.

Beyond blocking Netanyahu's return, the combined 19 seats won by Arab parties complicated the formation of the next Israeli government. The 'Change Camp' led by Ayzenkot secured fewer seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, making it difficult for Ayzenkot to form an alternative coalition without engaging Arab parties, a move considered unlikely given the prevailing right-wing, anti-Arab sentiment in Israeli politics.

The election results also signaled a political delegitimization of the United Arab List's platform and its leader, Mansour Abbas. While the United Arab List secured its expected 7 seats, the results in the Triangle and Galilee regions indicated strong support for the Joint List, seen as a more unified representation of the Arab community that does not offer unconditional support to the Zionist consensus. Abbas was held responsible for the failure to unite Arab parties into a single Joint List.

The high turnout and support for the Joint List were a direct response to the war in Gaza, ongoing violations in the West Bank and Jerusalem, and the policies of the Ben-Gvir-Smotrich government, including incitement, home demolitions, and alleged complicity with organized crime. This sentiment was amplified during the Gaza conflict, which normalized daily incitement against Arabs in public spaces.

These results suggest the Arab public is prepared for future challenges, provided they are led by political figures possessing both wisdom and national commitment, who do not exploit public anxiety. The Joint List now carries a significant responsibility to shape the future political landscape, having received a historic mandate from voters who rejected the United Arab List's approach. The Arab community demonstrated its vitality and refusal to compromise on its national dignity and rights, proving capable of overcoming fear and rejecting occupation, incitement, and persecution.