Pollster Admits Error, Reveals Election Outcome Could Shift
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar admitted his surveys underestimated Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and strength, similar to 2015. He warned that counting double envelopes could still alter the final seat distribution and impact small parties like Jewish Home or Meretz.
The story in 4 lines · by baba
- Pollster Menachem Lazar admitted pre-election surveys significantly underestimated Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc.
- Lazar warned that counting double envelopes could still change the final seat distribution.
- Small parties like Jewish Home or Meretz might still cross the electoral threshold.
- Lazar noted the difficulty in forming a government given the unclear election results.
Dr. Menachem Lazar, a pollster for Maariv, has admitted to significant errors in pre-election surveys, acknowledging a large discrepancy between predictions and the actual results. He explained that the polls underestimated the bloc supporting Benjamin Netanyahu and Netanyahu's personal strength, drawing a parallel to the 2015 elections where Netanyahu also boosted the Likud's power on election day.
Lazar suggested that issues with how polling stations are selected and how the public behaves during elections might be contributing factors. He noted that the final results could still change, particularly due to the counting of double envelopes, which might affect the seat distribution and the fate of smaller parties.
Specifically, Lazar pointed out that the Jewish Home party, which was short by approximately 1,400 votes, or Meretz, which needed a few thousand more votes, could potentially cross the electoral threshold.
Despite these potential shifts, Lazar believes the overall picture is relatively clear, with no side achieving a decisive victory.
