Israel Begins Counting Special Ballots That Could Shift Knesset Seat Distribution

Israel's Central Elections Committee has commenced the counting of "special votes," also known as double-envelope ballots, which have the potential to alter the seat distribution in the Knesset. Concurrently, reports indicate that the tally of regular ballots is not yet fully complete. As of early morning, the committee reported processing results from 11,712 out of 12,018 regular polling stations, accounting for the votes of 5,126,759 citizens. The remaining stations are undergoing standard verification.

The focus is now on the additional ballots cast by individuals unable to vote at their designated polling stations. This includes soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces, prisoners, medical personnel and patients, and Israeli diplomats serving abroad. Up to 650,000 such votes are expected to be included in the final calculation, potentially representing around 15 of the Knesset's 120 seats. While these mandates are not awarded separately, their inclusion in the overall results can shift the parliamentary balance.

The high number of special votes this year is attributed significantly to the ongoing war, which has mobilized numerous soldiers and reservists. In the 2022 elections, over 460,000 double-envelope votes were cast, with pre-election estimates for the current vote ranging from 600,000 to 650,000.

The double-envelope voting process involves placing a ballot in an anonymous inner envelope, which is then placed in a second outer envelope containing the voter's personal details. Election authorities first verify that the individual has not already voted before opening the inner envelope for the national count. These additional votes can be decisive in closely contested elections. Historically, Zionist parties of various political leanings tend to perform relatively well with this voting method, while ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties may be at a disadvantage due to the demographic makeup of those casting special ballots.