Ultra-Orthodox Parties Fear Opposition as Election Results Shift Power Dynamics

The preliminary election results in Israel are causing concern among ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly Shas and United Torah Judaism, who fear being relegated to the opposition. Shas has seen a significant drop in support, falling from 11 mandates in the previous election to just seven according to 86.5% of votes counted. United Torah Judaism has also remained at seven mandates, with potential further losses from double-envelope votes. Both parties had anticipated playing a kingmaker role, potentially forcing the next coalition to pass a conscription exemption law before government formation. However, the shifting results have altered this expectation.

Concerns are also mounting over the performance of two new parties challenging the established ultra-Orthodox factions: "Black Color," representing draft dodgers, and "The Haredi Public," advocating for working Haredim and integration into national service. "Black Color" garnered approximately 9,500 votes, while "The Haredi Public" received about 9,029 votes. These parties aimed to challenge the status quo by drawing votes away from Shas and United Torah Judaism, focusing on issues like the status of yeshiva students and integration into the military. Despite not achieving significant mandate numbers, "Black Color" claims to have influenced the discourse and prevented hundreds of thousands of votes from returning to the established parties, raising the issue of yeshiva students' status.

Supporters of "The Haredi Public," led by Moty Lightner, expressed disappointment with the low vote count but framed the election as a historic moment and the beginning of a long struggle. They reported facing harassment, vandalism, and ballot tampering during the campaign. The party aimed to protest the lack of response from established Haredi parties to the needs of Haredim seeking state-recognized education, army preparation programs, and other forms of integration. The election results suggest that the ultra-Orthodox society may not yet be ready for a political framework that directly challenges the existing representation, despite ongoing changes within the community regarding education and employment.