Double Envelope Votes May Slightly Boost Netanyahu Bloc
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Israeli election estimates indicate that counting soldiers' votes in "double envelopes" may slightly benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc by up to one seat. This process, expected to conclude by Thursday evening, involves an estimated 430,000 to 480,000 votes, primarily from soldiers. While these votes could shift seat allocations within blocs, they are unlikely to break the current governmental formation deadlock, as neither major bloc has secured the required 61 seats.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Double envelope votes may add up to one seat to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc.
- An estimated 430,000 to 480,000 votes are still being counted in double envelopes.
- Soldiers' votes in double envelopes typically favor religious right-wing parties.
- The counting of double envelopes is expected to conclude by Thursday evening.
- Neither major bloc has yet secured the 61 seats needed to form a government.
- The votes are not expected to fundamentally change the balance of power.
Israeli election estimates suggest that the counting of "double envelopes," primarily containing soldiers' votes, will offer a limited boost to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, potentially adding one seat. However, this is not expected to fundamentally alter the balance of power between the two main blocs or resolve the ongoing deadlock regarding the formation of the next government.
According to estimates presented by Assaf Shapira, a researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, these double envelopes typically favor religious right-wing parties while proportionally diminishing the influence of Haredi and Arab parties. With approximately 86% of votes already counted, Netanyahu's bloc is projected to secure 53 seats, the change bloc 48, and the two Arab lists 19.
The double envelopes contain an estimated 430,000 to 480,000 votes, representing about 12 seats in terms of vote volume, though they do not constitute additional seats but are factored into the overall election results. These votes include those from soldiers in regular, permanent, and reserve service, Israelis voting at diplomatic missions abroad, individuals who voted at accessible polling stations outside their registration areas, and election workers. Soldiers typically account for about half of these voters.
Shapira anticipates that religious right-wing parties will benefit from these votes, based on past voting patterns, though potential gains might be offset by a decline in Haredi party support. Most seat distribution changes are expected within the blocs themselves, with Netanyahu's bloc possibly gaining one or two seats. Within the anti-Netanyahu bloc, parties like Gadi Eisenkot's Yachad and Naftali Bennett's Bayit Yehudi might see gains, similar to pro-conscription Zionist parties that performed well among these demographics in previous elections. Parties led by Yoaz Hendel and Ze'ev Elkin, and Ofer Winter are also expected to improve their share, but not enough to surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold.
More clarity on the results is expected by Thursday evening as the counting of double envelopes concludes. The ability of Netanyahu or Eisenkot to form a government will ultimately depend on political agreements between parties, as neither bloc currently holds the necessary 61-seat majority.
Mentioned
The same event, reported separately by each outlet. Open a few to compare what different newsrooms emphasize — and what they leave out.
Left 1Centre 3Right 2Haredi 1Arab 2Other 1
Not the same event — other stories that share this one’s people, places, or theme: background, reactions, and follow-ups.
