Election Officials Lower "Double Envelope" Count, May Shift Mandates

Israel's Central Elections Committee (CEC) has revised its estimate for the number of "double envelopes" to be counted, lowering the expected total from 600,000-650,000 to 430,000-480,000. These envelopes contain ballots from individuals voting outside their registered precincts, including soldiers, reservists, hospital patients, prisoners, diplomats, and residents displaced by the recent war. While the CEC stated this revised number could influence the distribution of a few parliamentary seats, it is unlikely to alter the overall outcome, as no bloc currently holds a majority to form a government. The CEC released the updated estimate in the afternoon, noting that the acceptance of double envelopes is ongoing and the final count may still change. The counting process was scheduled to begin that evening. Additionally, the preliminary voter turnout of 77.7% may also be adjusted downward, with final figures potentially being over one percent lower than initially reported, though this has not been officially confirmed. Nevertheless, turnout is expected to be significantly higher than the 70.6% recorded in the 2022 elections.

The reduction in the number of double envelopes might indicate a higher proportion of votes from soldiers than initially projected. Data from the 2022 elections showed that soldiers tended to favor right-wing parties more than the general electorate. For instance, the "Religious Zionism" and "Otzma Yehudit" lists received 15.45% of the double envelope vote compared to 10.84% nationwide, and Yisrael Beiteinu garnered 5.7% versus 4.48%. The Likud party's support was nearly identical, at 23.52% compared to 23.41% nationally. Conversely, ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties received a smaller share of votes from those using double envelopes. Shas secured 6.84% compared to 8.25% nationally, United Torah Judaism received 3.74% versus 5.88%, Ra'am got 1.75% against 4.07%, and Hadash-Ta'al garnered 1.71% compared to 3.75%.

If past trends hold, right-wing parties could gain additional mandates at the expense of ultra-Orthodox and Arab lists. Shas, led by Arie Deri, is particularly vulnerable; its current seven seats could potentially decrease, with a final seat possibly shifting to Likud or United Torah Judaism. Losing a seat would mark Shas's worst result since 1992, when it held 11 seats. The positions of Arab parties are also at risk. Following the count of regular ballots, the "United List" has 12 mandates and Ra'am has seven, but this combined total of 19 could be reduced to 18 after the double envelopes are tallied. The article also notes the ongoing question of which parties will successfully cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. Earlier reports indicated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 54 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's "Yachad" camp 49 seats, based on 84.5% of ballots counted.