Iran Conflict Looms Over Israeli Government Formation Talks

As Israel continues to count votes from the 26th Knesset elections, political leaders are preparing for complex negotiations to form the next government. Simultaneously, reports indicate a potential escalation of conflict with Iran in the coming weeks. This scenario could place Israel in an unusual position: a transitional government managing a military campaign while President Isaac Herzog consults with factions on forming a new government.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States has conveyed messages to several Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense military campaign against Iran following the US midterm elections on November 3. While President Donald Trump has not made a final decision, an option being considered involves extensive strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and sites. Trump himself stated that "everything is possible" when asked about a post-election strike. The US has also reportedly reinforced its forces in the region with air defense systems and naval assets.

President Herzog is reportedly preparing for the possibility that the government formation process will occur amidst a security escalation. Sources indicate Herzog is determined to proceed with the formation, even if a war erupts, and that proceedings could be conducted remotely if necessary. The President's Residence stated they are not engaging in speculation and that the President will act according to the law after the results are published.

According to Israeli law, official election results must be published within eight days of the vote. The President then has seven days to consult with factions and assign the mandate to form a government. The designated candidate has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension, meaning the process could extend well into November, even if a military campaign begins.

Beyond the procedural aspects, the developments with Iran raise questions about government formation possibilities. Political commentator Amit Segal suggested that a confrontation with Iran might occur while the political system is occupied with forming a government, with Trump being a significant factor in timing. Political sources have raised the possibility that renewed fighting could increase pressure on opposition parties to join a unity government during wartime. An Israeli diplomatic source also indicated that a security development could influence efforts to form a broad government.

Even if Israel enters a new campaign before a government is formed, the outgoing government will continue to function. Israeli Basic Law: The Government does not preclude a transitional government from making significant security decisions. Article 40 stipulates that initiating a war or a significant military operation requires a government or cabinet decision, not one made solely by the Prime Minister. This could lead to Prime Minister Netanyahu continuing to manage security affairs as caretaker prime minister while the President consults on the next prime minister. The coming weeks will reveal if reports of preparations against Iran translate into military action, adding another factor for party leaders to consider during government formation talks.