Israeli Knesset Election Projections Show More Arab Lawmakers, Fewer Religious

As final results for the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections await the counting of double envelopes, preliminary data based on 85% of votes cast indicates a significant shift in the composition of the next parliament. The representation of Ethiopian Israelis is projected to decline, while the number of Arab lawmakers is expected to approach their proportion in the general population. Conversely, there is no projected improvement in the representation of women or LGBTQ+ individuals.

Women are expected to constitute just over a quarter of the next Knesset, with 33 female members. The "Yashar" party is notable for having women as more than half of its expected 21 MKs. "B'Yachad" and "HaDemocratim" parties are projected to have 50% female representation. In contrast, the Likud party is expected to have only four women among its 26 MKs, a decrease from the outgoing Knesset where they had six out of 32. The overall number of women in the next Knesset is not significantly different from the previous one, which saw 32 female MKs by its end, though it was higher during the "Government of Change" period with 45.

The Arab representation is projected to reach 16 MKs, alongside three Druze representatives. The "HaMahane HaMamlachti" list will include ten Arab and one Druze MK, while "Ra'am" will have six Arab MKs. "Yisrael Beiteinu" and "Otzma Yehudit" are each expected to have two female MKs, and "Religious Zionism" one. No women are expected to serve in the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Representation for the LGBTQ+ community is projected to remain at three openly gay MKs, the same as the previous Knesset: Amir Ohana from Likud, Eitan Ginzburg from B'Yachad, and Yisrael Zri from Yashar. Yashar is also the only party with representation from the Ethiopian community, with MK-elect Yaffa Tadjah slated to serve, compared to four Ethiopian-origin MKs in the previous Knesset's final term.

Religious lawmakers are expected to comprise over a fifth of the next Knesset, totaling 27 members, with 16 being ultra-Orthodox (approximately 13%). This is a decrease from the outgoing Knesset's 30 religious and 19 ultra-Orthodox members. "Religious Zionism" expects all six of its MKs to be religious, and "Otzma Yehudit" anticipates five religious members out of seven. In a reversal of expectations, Likud will have only four religious MKs out of 26, while Yashar will have seven out of 21.

Approximately 24% of the expected MKs did not serve in the military. Jewish MKs from "HaMahane HaMamlachti" and "Ra'am" were the only ones who did not serve in the IDF. In "Yahadut HaTorah," four out of seven are not expected to have served, with those who did having short service. "Shas" expects three out of seven not to have served. "Otzma Yehudit" chairman Itamar Ben-Gvir is among three members who did not serve. "B'Yachad" and "HaDemocratim" are the only parties where all elected members served in the military. Regarding higher education, ten MKs are expected to hold doctorates, with seven from "HaMahane HaMamlachti" and one each from "Ra'am," Likud, and "Religious Zionism."