Competitors Admit: Philber Was Right, Other Pollsters Missed Trend
Translated & summarized from Now 14 by baba
News 14 pollster Shlomo Philber accurately predicted a strong showing for the right-wing bloc, defying other pollsters who were widely criticized for their lower projections. As votes were counted, Philber's exit poll of 60 seats for the bloc proved far more accurate than competitors' forecasts. Media figures, including Amit Segal and Yossi Elitov, acknowledged Philber's success, with Segal calling it "Yom Kippur for most pollsters."
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- News 14 pollster Shlomo Philber accurately predicted a large right-wing bloc, unlike other pollsters.
- Philber's exit poll projected 60 seats for the right-wing bloc, significantly higher than competitors.
- With 60.2% of votes counted, the current coalition stands at 56 seats, validating Philber's forecast.
- Media figures acknowledged Philber's accuracy, with some calling it "Yom Kippur for most pollsters."
- Critics who previously mocked Philber's predictions were forced to admit his foresight.
Throughout the election campaign, News 14 pollster Shlomo Philber was largely alone in predicting significantly higher numbers for the right-wing bloc than other Israeli polling firms. While competing channels projected around 50 seats for the bloc, News 14's polls consistently showed a much larger result. Philber's projections made him a frequent target of criticism and ridicule from journalists, commentators, and the public.
However, as vote counting progressed, even his critics were forced to acknowledge his accuracy. News 14's exit poll predicted 60 seats for the right-wing bloc, a stark contrast to the 50 seats projected by some competitors. With approximately 60.2% of votes counted, the current coalition stands at 56 seats, falling short of the dire predictions made by many pollsters during the election.
The trend is also evident at the party level, with preliminary results showing the Likud with 28 seats, Yahadut HaTorah with 21, United Torah Judaism with 11, and Otzma Yehudit with eight. While the final count is not yet complete, it is clear that the forecasts of a complete collapse of the right-wing bloc did not materialize.
Recognition of Philber's success came from media figures not affiliated with News 14. Former "The Marker" editor Itamar Cohen tweeted, "Israel Prize for media to Shlomo Philber." Yossi Elitov, editor of "Mishpacha," praised Philber, stating, "We all owe Momu Philber an apology. A well-oiled machine of one person. He was closest to reality."
News 12 reporter Amit Segal commented on the unusual discrepancy between predictions and results, calling it "Yom Kippur for most pollsters," noting the statistical impossibility of a six-seat opposition advantage flipping in four days. Israel Hayom reporter Bini Ashkenazi called for explanations from pollsters, highlighting the failure of most surveys to predict the current outcome. Journalist Attila Somfalvi joined the chorus of praise, suggesting that all Israeli pollsters should call Philber for a personal conversation.
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