Up to 650,000 Special Votes Could Still Alter Israeli Election Results
Translated & summarized from Jüdische Allgemeine by baba
Up to 650,000 special votes from soldiers and other eligible voters are still being counted in Israel's parliamentary election, potentially altering the Knesset's seat distribution. These votes, cast outside regular polling stations, are crucial in close elections and historically favor Zionist parties. The process could impact ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties, as seen in 2022 when special votes shifted seats between United Torah Judaism and Israel Beitenu.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Up to 650,000 special votes from soldiers and others could still change Israeli election results.
- These votes are cast outside regular polling stations and require separate verification.
- The special votes are crucial for determining seat distribution in the Knesset.
- Zionist parties historically benefit from special votes due to high soldier turnout.
- Ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties may see their seat numbers affected by the special count.
- In 2022, special votes caused a seat shift between United Torah Judaism and Israel Beitenu.
A significant portion of the vote count from Israel's parliamentary election remains outstanding, involving up to 650,000 "special votes" that require separate verification. These votes, cast by soldiers, reservists, police officers, diplomats, prison staff, hospital patients, and individuals displaced by the ongoing war, could noticeably shift the seat distribution in the Knesset, especially given the current narrow majority margins. The special voting procedure allows eligible voters to cast ballots outside their designated polling stations. Ballots are placed in an inner anonymous envelope, which is then put into a second envelope containing the voter's personal details. Election authorities first check the outer envelope to ensure the voter has not already cast a ballot before opening the inner envelope for the national count.
The Central Election Commission anticipates an unusually high number of these special ballots due to the war and the extensive mobilization of reservists. In the 2022 election, over 460,000 such votes were cast, with estimates for the current election ranging from 600,000 to 650,000. These votes are not awarded separately but are integrated into the overall results, potentially altering the allocation of the 120 Knesset seats among the parties. Historically, Zionist parties across the political spectrum tend to benefit from this process, largely due to the significant number of soldiers among those who vote this way. Conversely, ultra-Orthodox and Arab voter groups are less represented in this category, which can lead to a reduction in their parties' relative vote shares after the special count is finalized.
Parties like Shas, United Torah Judaism, the predominantly Arab Joint List, and the Islamist party Ra'am are particularly under scrutiny to see how their seat counts might change. However, the final impact will also depend on the remaining regular votes, the performance of other parties, and the distribution of surplus votes. The influence of special votes was evident in 2022, when United Torah Judaism was projected to win eight seats and Avigdor Lieberman's secular-nationalist Israel Beitenu five seats before the special votes were counted. After their inclusion, United Torah Judaism lost one seat, while Israel Beitenu gained one.
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