Netanyahu's Path to Power: Unity Government or Defector Deals

Despite pre-election polls indicating a bloc of fewer than 61 seats for the right-wing camp, the Likud party remains confident that Benjamin Netanyahu will be tasked with forming the next government. This conviction stems from the perceived lack of a consensus alternative candidate on the center-left who could secure the necessary 61 recommendations from Knesset members to the President. The Likud is the largest party by a significant margin, and Netanyahu has a history of forming coalitions even with fewer initial seats.

Three main scenarios are being considered, all requiring political maneuvering beyond Netanyahu's natural bloc. The first, favored by the President's Residence and others, is a unity government including Gadi Eisenkot's National Unity party. Such a coalition, alongside the religious parties, could grant Netanyahu 65-68 seats and broad legitimacy. Eisenkot would likely demand a rotation in the prime ministership and a freeze on judicial reforms, while Netanyahu would gain stability and a reduced reliance on the ultra-Orthodox parties. For Eisenkot, this is a risky move that could alienate his base.

Another possibility involves forming a government with Avigdor Lieberman or Naftali Bennett, a tactic to divide the "change bloc." Netanyahu could offer Lieberman the Defense Ministry and a softened conscription law, or Bennett senior ministerial positions and a promise of a future joint list. However, trust is a major issue, as both leaders have vowed not to serve under Netanyahu, and their supporters are largely opposed to him. This path would require significant concessions on portfolios, policy, and potentially freezing judicial overhaul legislation.

The third option is to "recruit defectors" from opposition parties, bringing in two to three individual Knesset members from Yisrael Beiteinu, National Unity, or Bennett's party. This strategy, though legally complex for factions smaller than a third, could form a government with external support. The targets are right-wing MKs in Lieberman's party who oppose sitting with Arab parties, and right-wing members in Bennett's and Eisenkot's parties who would not join a coalition with the Joint List. The price would be reserved seats, ministerial posts, and an expanded "Norwegian Law," but the risk is a fragile government and accusations of vote theft.

A significant obstacle is the "59 trap," where the right-wing bloc secures 59 seats or fewer, giving the center-left-Arab bloc a majority. In such a scenario, the new Knesset could convene before the President assigns the mandate, allowing the left-wing bloc to seize control, depose Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, and appoint their own. This new Speaker would control the agenda, delay legislation, and become a powerful bargaining chip. In an extreme case, if all opposition leaders unite with 61 signatures, they might attempt to claim the first mandate. A repeat of the 2019 scenario, leading to new elections, is also possible if no one compromises.