Israeli Polls Show Decline in Haredi Party Support Ahead of Elections

Exit polls released Tuesday indicate a weakening of the Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, in the upcoming Knesset elections. These parties, which together secured 18 seats in the previous election, are projected to win between 12 and 16 seats based on five different polls. Shas appears to be experiencing the more significant decline, while United Torah Judaism is managing to maintain its strength in some projections.

Channel 14's poll, conducted by Shlomo Filber, forecasts Shas receiving nine seats and United Torah Judaism seven, totaling 16 seats. i24NEWS projects Shas with eight seats and United Torah Judaism with seven. Channel 12's poll shows Shas with eight seats and United Torah Judaism with six. The situation looks more challenging for the Haredi parties in polls from Channel 13 and Kan 11, with Channel 13 predicting six seats for Shas and seven for United Torah Judaism (13 total), and Kan 11 showing each party winning six seats, for a combined total of 12.

For comparison, in the 2022 elections for the 25th Knesset, Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, won 11 seats, and United Torah Judaism won seven. The current projections suggest Shas could lose between two and five seats, while United Torah Judaism might lose at most one seat or hold steady.

These projected results follow a particularly complex election campaign within the Haredi community, marked by issues such as the conscription crisis, arrests of yeshiva students, and criticism of Haredi representation. Both parties have worked in recent weeks to boost voter turnout amid concerns that disappointed voters might stay home or choose other lists. United Torah Judaism also faced internal tensions between its various factions, complicating election preparations. Shas aimed to preserve support among the broader Haredi and traditional public, having successfully reached wider audiences beyond its core Haredi base in past elections.

New Haredi protest parties have also emerged, notably the "The Haredi Public" party led by Moti Lightner, which ran against the established parties over issues of conscription and political representation. Early polls suggest this list will not pass the electoral threshold. The impact of these protest lists on the established Haredi parties' vote share remains unclear.

The potential weakening of the Haredi parties has broader political implications. In the Channel 14 poll, where the Haredi parties collectively gain 16 seats, Netanyahu's bloc reaches 60 seats. The i24NEWS poll shows the bloc with 55 seats, and Channels 11, 12, and 13 project it with only 50. Crucially, none of the polls show Netanyahu's bloc achieving the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. The Haredi parties will await the final results to determine if their support has indeed diminished and what their leverage will be in coalition negotiations for the next government.