Finance Minister Curse Continues as Smotrich's Party Sees Election Drop

Based on exit poll averages, the joint list of the Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party appears to have secured 6 seats in the recent election. This breaks down to 5 seats for Religious Zionism and 1 for Zehut. This represents a decline from the 7 seats Religious Zionism received in 2022 as part of a united list with Otzma Yehudit and Noam.

The results suggest Smotrich has not escaped the "curse of the Finance Minister," a phenomenon where a party leader holding the finance portfolio experiences a decline in the subsequent election. This trend, which is relatively recent, began to emerge with party leaders serving as Finance Minister, a practice that became more common after the 1984 rotation government.

Historically, Finance Ministers were typically from the ruling party. However, Shimon Peres became the first party leader to hold the finance portfolio in the 1988 unity government. After a period where the Finance Minister usually came from the ruling party, the trend shifted again in 2013 when Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, a coalition partner, took the finance portfolio. Since then, with the exception of Israel Katz, Finance Ministers have consistently been leaders of coalition parties rather than the primary ruling party.

Several party leaders who served as Finance Minister have seen their parties suffer electoral losses in the following elections. These include Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid), Moshe Kahlon (Kulanu), and Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu). Even Binyamin Netanyahu, who served as Finance Minister under Ariel Sharon from 2003-2005, saw the Likud party drop to 12 seats in 2006 after he resigned and returned to lead the party. Smotrich's Religious Zionism experienced a 29% drop in seats, continuing this pattern.